Mellin, Camille, Brown, Stuart, Cantin, Neal, Klein-Salas, Eduardo, Mouillot, David, Heron, Scott F., and Fordham, Damien A. (2024) Cumulative risk of future bleaching for the world's coral reefs. Science Advances, 10 (26). eadn9660.

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Abstract

Spatial and temporal patterns of future coral bleaching are uncertain, hampering global conservation efforts to protect coral reefs against climate change. Our analysis of daily projections of ocean warming establishes the severity, annual duration, and onset of severe bleaching risk for global coral reefs this century, pinpointing vital climatic refugia. We show that low-latitude coral regions are most vulnerable to thermal stress and will experience little reprieve from climate mitigation. By 2080, coral bleaching is likely to start on most reefs in spring, rather than late summer, with year-round bleaching risk anticipated to be high for some low-latitude reefs regardless of global efforts to mitigate harmful greenhouse gasses. By identifying Earth's reef regions that are at lowest risk of accelerated bleaching, our results will prioritize efforts to limit future loss of coral reef biodiversity.

Item ID:	83558
Item Type:	Article (Research - C1)
ISSN:	2375-2548
Related URLs:	https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri...
Copyright Information:	Copyright © 2024 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. Distributed under a Creative Commons Attribution NonCommercial License 4.0 (CC BY-NC).
Funders:	Australian Research Council (ARC)
Projects and Grants:	ARC grant FT200100870, ARC grant DP230102986
Date Deposited:	10 Sep 2024 01:48
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