Bradshaw, Corey, Reepmeyer, Christian, Saltré, Frédérik, Agapiou, Athos, Kassianidou, Vasiliki, Demesticha, Stella, Zomeni, Zomenia, Polidorou, Miltiadis, and Moutsiou, Theodora (2024) Demographic models predict end-Pleistocene arrival and rapid expansion of pre-agropastoralist humans in Cyprus. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 121 (21). e2318293121.

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Abstract

The antiquity of human dispersal into Mediterranean islands and ensuing coastal adaptation have remained largely unexplored due to the prevailing assumption that the sea was a barrier to movement and that islands were hostile environments to early hunter-gatherers [J. F. Cherry, T. P. Leppard, J. Isl. Coast. Archaeol. 13, 191–205 (2018), https://doi.org/10.1080/15564894.2016.1276489]. Using the latest archaeological data, hindcasted climate projections, and age-structured demographic models, we demonstrate evidence for early arrival (14,257 to 13,182 calendar years ago) to Cyprus and predicted that large groups of people (~1,000 to 1,375) arrived in 2 to 3 main events occurring within <100 y to ensure low extinction risk. These results indicate that the postglacial settlement of Cyprus involved only a few large-scale, organized events requiring advanced watercraft technology. Our spatially debiased and Signor–Lipps-corrected estimates indicate rapid settlement of the island within <200 y, and expansion to a median of 4,000 to 5,000 people (0.36 to 0.46 km−2) in <11 human generations (<300 y). Our results do not support the hypothesis of inaccessible and inhospitable islands in the Mediterranean for pre-agropastoralists, agreeing with analogous conclusions for other parts of the world [M. I. Bird et al., Sci. Rep. 9, 8220 (2019), https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-42946-9]. Our results also highlight the need to revisit these questions in the Mediterranean and test their validity with new technologies, field methods, and data. By applying stochastic models to the Mediterranean region, we can place Cyprus and large islands in general as attractive and favorable destinations for paleolithic peoples.

Item ID:	82880
Item Type:	Article (Research - C1)
ISSN:	1091-6490
Keywords:	Archaeology, Carrying capacity, Human expansion, Maritime movements, Paleolithic
Copyright Information:	Copyright © 2024 the Author(s). Published by PNAS. This article is distributed under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives License 4.0 (CC BY-NC-ND).
Funders:	European Development Fund (EDF), Australian Research Council
Projects and Grants:	Research and Innovation Foundation (EXCELLENCE/0421/0050), ARC Centre of Excellence for Australian Biodiversity and Heritage (CE170100015)
Date Deposited:	27 May 2024 01:50
FoR Codes:	43 HISTORY, HERITAGE AND ARCHAEOLOGY > 4301 Archaeology > 430101 Archaeological science @ 50% 43 HISTORY, HERITAGE AND ARCHAEOLOGY > 4301 Archaeology > 430104 Archaeology of Europe, the Mediterranean and the Levant @ 50%
SEO Codes:	13 CULTURE AND SOCIETY > 1307 Understanding past societies > 130704 Understanding Europe’s past @ 100%
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