Lau, Sally C. Y., Wilson, Nerida G., Golledge, Nicholas R., Naish, Tim R., Watts, Phillip C., Silva, Catarina N. S., Cooke, Ira R., Allcock, A. Louise, Mark, Felix C., Linse, Katrin, and Strugnell, Jan M. (2023) Genomic evidence for West Antarctic Ice Sheet collapse during the Last Interglacial. Science, 382. pp. 1384-1389.

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Abstract

The marine-based West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) is considered vulnerable to irreversible collapse under future climate trajectories, and its tipping point may lie within the mitigated warming scenarios of 1.5° to 2°C of the United Nations Paris Agreement. Knowledge of ice loss during similarly warm past climates could resolve this uncertainty, including the Last Interglacial when global sea levels were 5 to 10 meters higher than today and global average temperatures were 0.5° to 1.5°C warmer than preindustrial levels. Using a panel of genome-wide, single-nucleotide polymorphisms of a circum-Antarctic octopus, we show persistent, historic signals of gene flow only possible with complete WAIS collapse. Our results provide the first empirical evidence that the tipping point of WAIS loss could be reached even under stringent climate mitigation scenarios.

Item ID:	82677
Item Type:	Article (Research - C1)
ISSN:	1095-9203
Copyright Information:	Copyright © 2023 the authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original US government works.
Funders:	Australian Research Council (ARC)
Projects and Grants:	ARC DP190101347
Date Deposited:	07 May 2024 01:16
FoR Codes:	31 BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES > 3104 Evolutionary biology > 310405 Evolutionary ecology @ 50% 41 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES > 4104 Environmental management > 410402 Environmental assessment and monitoring @ 50%
SEO Codes:	18 ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT > 1804 Management of Antarctic and Southern Ocean environments > 180403 Assessment and management of Antarctic and Southern Ocean ecosystems @ 100%
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