Widespread retreat of coastal habitat is likely at warming levels above 1.5 °C
Saintilan, Neil, Horton, Benjamin, Törnqvist, Torbjörn E., Ashe, Erica L., Khan, Nicole S., Schuerch, Mark, Perry, Chris, Kopp, Robert E., Garner, Gregory G., Murray, Nicholas, Rogers, Kerrylee, Albert, Simon, Kelleway, Jeffrey, Shaw, Timothy A., Woodroffe, Colin D., Lovelock, Catherine E., Goddard, Madeline M., Hutley, Lindsay B., Kovalenko, Katya, Feher, Laura, and Guntenspergen, Glenn (2023) Widespread retreat of coastal habitat is likely at warming levels above 1.5 °C. Nature, 621. pp. 112-119.
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Abstract
Several coastal ecosystems—most notably mangroves and tidal marshes—exhibit biogenic feedbacks that are facilitating adjustment to relative sea-level rise (RSLR), including the sequestration of carbon and the trapping of mineral sediment 1. The stability of reef-top habitats under RSLR is similarly linked to reef-derived sediment accumulation and the vertical accretion of protective coral reefs 2. The persistence of these ecosystems under high rates of RSLR is contested 3. Here we show that the probability of vertical adjustment to RSLR inferred from palaeo-stratigraphic observations aligns with contemporary in situ survey measurements. A deficit between tidal marsh and mangrove adjustment and RSLR is likely at 4 mm yr−1 and highly likely at 7 mm yr−1 of RSLR. As rates of RSLR exceed 7 mm yr−1, the probability that reef islands destabilize through increased shoreline erosion and wave over-topping increases. Increased global warming from 1.5 °C to 2.0 °C would double the area of mapped tidal marsh exposed to 4 mm yr−1 of RSLR by between 2080 and 2100. With 3 °C of warming, nearly all the world’s mangrove forests and coral reef islands and almost 40% of mapped tidal marshes are estimated to be exposed to RSLR of at least 7 mm yr−1. Meeting the Paris agreement targets would minimize disruption to coastal ecosystems.
| Item ID: | 80359 |
|---|---|
| Item Type: | Article (Research - C1) |
| ISSN: | 1476-4687 |
| Copyright Information: | © The Author(s) 2023. This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. |
| Funders: | Australian Research Council (ARC) |
| Projects and Grants: | ARC FL200100133, ARC DP210100739 |
| Date Deposited: | 07 Feb 2024 00:56 |
| FoR Codes: | 41 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES > 4104 Environmental management > 410402 Environmental assessment and monitoring @ 100% |
| SEO Codes: | 28 EXPANDING KNOWLEDGE > 2801 Expanding knowledge > 280111 Expanding knowledge in the environmental sciences @ 100% |
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