Wang, Weilan, Zhang, Qingpeng, Thomson, Peter, Sharma, Dileep, Ramamurthy, Poornima, and Choi, Siu‐Wai (2023) Predicting oral cancer survival—Development and validation of an Asia-Pacific nomogram. Journal of Oral Pathology and Medicine, 52 (7). pp. 628-636.

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Abstract

Background: Nomograms are graphical calculating devices that predict response to treatment during cancer management. Oral squamous cell carcinoma (OSCC) is a lethal and deforming disease of rising incidence and global significance. The aim of this study was to develop a nomogram to predict individualized OSCC survival using a population-based dataset obtained from Queensland, Australia and externally validated using a cohort of OSCC patients treated in Hong Kong.

Methods: Clinico-pathological data for newly diagnosed OSCC patients, including age, sex, tumour site and grading, were accessed retrospectively from the Queensland Cancer Registry (QCR) in Australia and the Clinical Data Analysis and Reporting System (CDARS) in Hong Kong. Multivariate Cox proportional hazard regression was used to construct overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) prediction models. Nomograms were internally validated using 10-fold cross validation, and externally validated against the Hong Kong dataset.

Results: Data from 9885 OSCC patients in Queensland and 465 patients from Hong Kong were analysed. All clinico-pathological variables significantly influenced survival outcomes. Nomogram calibration curves demonstrated excellent agreement between predicted and actual probability for Queensland patients. External validation in the Hong Kong population demonstrated slightly poorer nomogram performance, but predictive power remained strong.

Conclusion: Based upon readily available data documenting patient demographic and clinico-pathological variables, predictive nomograms offer pragmatic aid to clinicians in individualized treatment planning and prognosis assessment in contemporary OSCC management.

Item ID:	78811
Item Type:	Article (Research - C1)
ISSN:	1600-0714
Keywords:	nomogram, oral squamous cell carcinoma, prediction, survival
Copyright Information:	© 2023 The Authors. Journal of Oral Pathology & Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
Date Deposited:	30 May 2023 01:04
FoR Codes:	32 BIOMEDICAL AND CLINICAL SCIENCES > 3203 Dentistry > 320305 Oral and maxillofacial surgery @ 50% 32 BIOMEDICAL AND CLINICAL SCIENCES > 3211 Oncology and carcinogenesis > 321109 Predictive and prognostic markers @ 50%
SEO Codes:	20 HEALTH > 2001 Clinical health > 200105 Treatment of human diseases and conditions @ 50% 20 HEALTH > 2002 Evaluation of health and support services > 200202 Evaluation of health outcomes @ 50%
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