Saunders, Sarah P., Grand, Joanna, Bateman, Brooke L., Meek, Mariah, Wilsey, Chad B., Forstenhaeusler, Nicole, Graham, Erin, Warren, Rachel, and Price, Jeff (2023) Integrating climate-change refugia into 30 by 30 conservation planning in North America. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment, 21 (2). pp. 77-84.

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Abstract

Countries have set targets for conserving natural areas to mitigate biodiversity loss, such as the protection of 30% of lands by 2030, commonly referred to as “30 by 30”. Yet strategic conservation planning to align those targets with climate-change refugia is lacking. We investigated the feasibility of achieving 30 by 30 in North America by assessing the proportions of state/provincial/territorial land projected to provide refugia for terrestrial biodiversity and the proportions of those refugia that are currently protected. We also conducted a reserve selection prioritization to identify priority areas that complement the current protected area network and capture refugia for seven taxonomic groups. In North America, <15% of refugia are protected, but ample opportunity exists to expand protection if warming is limited to 2°C. Beyond 2°C, however, the majority of refugia will occur only at high latitudes and elevations. Incorporation of refugia into 30 by 30 efforts will facilitate species persistence under climate change.

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