Allen, Cameron, Oldfield, Philip, Teh, Soo Huey, Wiedmann, Thomas, Langdon, Sarah, Yu, Man, and Yang, Jiajia (2022) Modelling ambitious climate mitigation pathways for Australia's built environment. Sustainable Cities and Society, 77. 103554.

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Abstract

Achieving net zero operational and embodied greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the built environment is recognised in Australia and globally as a key strategy to address climate change and achieve the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). However, gaps in knowledge remain regarding potential national pathways to achieve this outcome in Australia. This study further extends and applies a national-scale integrated macroeconomic simulation model to explore coherent pathways to net zero emissions in the built environment sector by 2050. The scope of the study includes residential and commercial buildings and both operational and embodied emissions. It applies scenario analysis incorporating different levels of climate ambition, including a shift to renewable energy, electrifying buildings, improving energy efficiency and replacing carbon-intensive materials. We find that a high ambition scenario (Scenario 2) delivers a 94% reduction in GHG emissions by 2050 when compared against business-as-usual, placing a net-zero target within reach. Improvements on Australia's SDGs performance are also attained. Through subsequent pathways analysis we find that achieving net zero or even net negative operational and embodied emissions is feasible with more ambitious action in key areas, including increasing the share of mass-timber buildings and reducing end-of-life losses in sequestered carbon.

Item ID:	78140
Item Type:	Article (Research - C1)
ISSN:	2210-6715
Copyright Information:	© 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Date Deposited:	11 Apr 2023 02:39
FoR Codes:	33 BUILT ENVIRONMENT AND DESIGN > 3301 Architecture > 330110 Sustainable architecture @ 50% 33 BUILT ENVIRONMENT AND DESIGN > 3304 Urban and regional planning > 330410 Urban analysis and development @ 50%
SEO Codes:	19 ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY, CLIMATE CHANGE AND NATURAL HAZARDS > 1902 Environmental policy, legislation and standards > 190209 Sustainability indicators @ 100%
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