Impacts of renewable portfolio standard on carbon emission peaking and tradable green certificate market: A system dynamics analysis method

Zhang, Yidi, Deng, Hui, Yang, Jiajia, Xu, Chengwei, Zhou, Ziqing, Wen, Fushuan, and Qi, Donglian (2022) Impacts of renewable portfolio standard on carbon emission peaking and tradable green certificate market: A system dynamics analysis method. Frontiers in Energy Research, 10. 963177.

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Abstract

With the announcement of the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality target in China as well as the launch of the nationwide green power renewable generation trading, one of the key issues is how to design an effective renewable portfolio standard (RPS) and build an efficient tradable green certificate (TGC) market. The quota that stipulates the share of electricity supplied from qualified renewable energy (RE) sources has substantial impacts on the TGC market, the electricity market, and the occurred time of carbon emission peaking. However, few studies have been reported on effectively quantifying the impacts of quota variation. Given this background, this paper presents an innovative system dynamics (SD) model to evaluate the impacts of quota variation on the trading results of the TGC market and the trend of carbon emissions in China for the next decade. The proposed SD model takes factors such as the accommodating capability by the power system for RE generation, the policy-driven carbon emission reduction target as well as the decreasing fixed feed-in tariff (FIT) for RE generation as constraints for the first time. These factors are quantified in the constraints based on the current RE policies and market trading mechanism in China to improve the evaluation accuracy of the SD model. Using real-world data, simulations under various scenarios are carried out to validate the feasibility and efficiency of the proposed model. The methods for further improving the design of TGC market are also further explored, which are expected to effectively guide China to achieve the carbon peaking target.

Item ID: 78131
Item Type: Article (Research - C1)
ISSN: 2296-598X
Copyright Information: © 2022 Zhang, Deng, Yang, Xu, Zhou, Wen and Qi. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) and the copyright owner(s) are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
Date Deposited: 12 Apr 2023 22:37
FoR Codes: 44 HUMAN SOCIETY > 4407 Policy and administration > 440710 Research, science and technology policy @ 30%
44 HUMAN SOCIETY > 4407 Policy and administration > 440799 Policy and administration not elsewhere classified @ 30%
49 MATHEMATICAL SCIENCES > 4901 Applied mathematics > 490105 Dynamical systems in applications @ 40%
SEO Codes: 19 ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY, CLIMATE CHANGE AND NATURAL HAZARDS > 1902 Environmental policy, legislation and standards > 190299 Environmental policy, legislation and standards not elsewhere classified @ 50%
19 ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY, CLIMATE CHANGE AND NATURAL HAZARDS > 1903 Mitigation of climate change > 190306 Management of greenhouse gas emissions from energy activities @ 50%
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