Scenarios as a tool for identifying future tourism demand

Singer, Petra, and Prideaux, Bruce (2005) Scenarios as a tool for identifying future tourism demand. In: Proceedings of the Council for Australian University Tourism and Hospitality Education Conference. . From: CAUTHE 2005: Sharing Tourism Knowledge, 1 - 5 February 2005, Alice Springs, NT, Australia.

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Numerical tourism forecasting models are well-established tools in the tourism industry to identify tourist arrivals for a particular destination at a given point of time in the future. Recent events have shown how unexpected external factors like terrorism and disease can alter international tourism flows. Forecasts of this nature arc not helpful in predicting changes in the future composition of demand. Given the obvious uncertainty of the future, this paper explains how the use of scenarios may enable tourism planners to consider a variety of possible future developments in order to facilitate the preparation for changing tourism demand. Using existing population scenarios constructed by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, this paper gives an example of how traditional forecasting methods can be complemented by utilising demographic variables when analysing future tourism demand.

Item ID: 7789
Item Type: Conference Item (Research - E1)
ISBN: 978-1-876248-97-0
Keywords: demography; forecasting; future; population projections; scenarios; tourism demand
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Conference theme "Sharing Tourism Knowledge"

Date Deposited: 16 Jun 2010 00:24
FoR Codes: 16 STUDIES IN HUMAN SOCIETY > 1605 Policy and Administration > 160513 Tourism Policy @ 100%
SEO Codes: 90 COMMERCIAL SERVICES AND TOURISM > 9003 Tourism > 900302 Socio-Cultural Issues in Tourism @ 100%
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