Golchin, Maryam, Hoskins, Andrew, and Hickson, Roslyn (2022) Estimating spillover risk through consideration of transmission processes. In: [Presented at the Australian Biosecurity Symposium]. From: 2nd Australian Biosecurity Symposium, 3-5 May 2022, Gold Coast, QLD, Australia.

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Abstract

Introduction Infectious disease emergence from spillover events is of global concern, and it has the potential to cause significant harm to society, the economy, and human life at the global level, as shown by the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. More than 70% of the +400 infectious diseases that emerged in the past five decades have a zoonotic origin, including all recent pandemics. Zoonotic disease emergence arises from a complex interplay between human, livestock, and wildlife systems.

Methods All infectious disease transmission requires contact between an infectious and susceptible individual, regardless of their species. As such, in this study we developed a simple estimate of pathogen spillover risk spatially by combining human populations, animal populations, and estimated pathogen populations. We estimate the pathogen population by identifying potential zoonotic pathogens, based on known historic human infections, and cross-referencing with the spatial distribution of the host animal species. Finally, we compared our spillover risk estimate with existing approaches, including statistical and data-driven methods.

Conclusion Our approach to estimating spillover risk could form the basis of an early warning system for decision-makers at all levels: from local land managers to international biosecurity. Additionally, by fusing with the best available predictions of scenarios of possible futures for the human populations, animal populations, and pathogen populations, our approach has the potential to be used to forecast spillover risk.

Item ID:	76983
Item Type:	Conference Item (Presentation)
Related URLs:	https://www.biosym.com.au/
Date Deposited:	14 Dec 2022 01:45
FoR Codes:	49 MATHEMATICAL SCIENCES > 4901 Applied mathematics > 490199 Applied mathematics not elsewhere classified @ 100%
SEO Codes:	20 HEALTH > 2004 Public health (excl. specific population health) > 200404 Disease distribution and transmission (incl. surveillance and response) @ 100%
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