The potential impacts of climate change on agriculture and fisheries production in 72 tropical coastal communities

Cinner, Joshua E., Caldwell, Iain R., Thiault, Lauric, Ben, John, Blanchard, Julia L., Coll, Marta, Diedrich, Amy, Eddy, Tyler D., Everett, Jason D., Folberth, Christian, Gascuel, Didier, Guiet, Jerome, Gurney, Georgina G., Heneghan, Ryan F., Jagermeyr, Jonas, Jiddawi, Narriman, Lahari, Rachael, Kuange, John, Wenfeng, Liu, Maury, Olivier, Muller, Christoph, Novaglio, Camilla, Palacios-Abrantes, Juliano, Petrik, Colleen, Rabearisoa, Ando, Tittensor, Derek P., Wamukota, Andrew, and Pollnac, Richard (2022) The potential impacts of climate change on agriculture and fisheries production in 72 tropical coastal communities. Nature Communications, 13. 3530.

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Abstract

Climate change is expected to profoundly affect key food production sectors, including fisheries and agriculture. However, the potential impacts of climate change on these sectors are rarely considered jointly, especially below national scales, which can mask substantial variability in how communities will be affected. Here, we combine socioeconomic surveys of 3,008 households and intersectoral multi-model simulation outputs to conduct a sub-national analysis of the potential impacts of climate change on fisheries and agriculture in 72 coastal communities across five Indo-Pacific countries (Indonesia, Madagascar, Papua New Guinea, Philippines, and Tanzania). Our study reveals three key findings: First, overall potential losses to fisheries are higher than potential losses to agriculture. Second, while most locations (> 2/3) will experience potential losses to both fisheries and agriculture simultaneously, climate change mitigation could reduce the proportion of places facing that double burden. Third, potential impacts are more likely in communities with lower socioeconomic status.

Item ID: 76862
Item Type: Article (Research - C1)
ISSN: 2041-1723
Copyright Information: © The Author(s) 2022. This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.
Funders: Australian Research Council (ARC)
Projects and Grants: ARC grant CE140100020, ARC grant FT160100047, ARC grant DP110101540, ARC grant DP0877905, ARC Discovery Early Career Research Award DE210101918
Date Deposited: 30 Nov 2022 03:20
FoR Codes: 41 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES > 4101 Climate change impacts and adaptation > 410103 Human impacts of climate change and human adaptation @ 100%
SEO Codes: 19 ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY, CLIMATE CHANGE AND NATURAL HAZARDS > 1901 Adaptation to climate change > 190199 Adaptation to climate change not elsewhere classified @ 100%
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