Bunbury, Magdalena M.E., Petchey, Fiona, and Bickler, Simon H. (2022) A new chronology for the Māori settlement of Aotearoa (NZ) and the potential role of climate change in demographic developments. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 119 (46). e2207609119.

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Abstract

Understanding the role of climate change, resource availability, and population growth on human mobility remains critically important in anthropology. Researching linkages between climate and demographic changes during the short settlement history of Aotearoa (New Zealand) requires temporal precision equivalent to the period of a single generation. However, current modeling approaches frequently use small terrestrial radiocarbon datasets, a practice that obscures past Māori population patterns and their connection to changing climate. Our systematic analysis of terrestrial and marine 14C ages has enabled robust assessments of the largest dataset yet collated from island contexts. This analysis has been made possible by the recent development of a temporal marine correction for southern Pacific waters, and our findings show the shortcomings of previous models. We demonstrate that human settlement in the mid-late 13th century AD is unambiguous. We highlight early (AD 1250-1275) settlement in the North Island. The South Island was reached a decade later (AD 1280-1295), where the hunting of giant flightless moa commenced (AD 1300-1415), and the population rapidly grew. Population growth levelled off around AD 1340 and declined between AD 1380 and 1420, synchronous with the onset of the Little Ice Age and moa loss as an important food source. The population continued to grow in the more economically stable north, where conditions for horticulture were optimal. The enhanced precision of this research afforded by the robust analysis of marine dates opens up unique opportunities to investigate interconnectivity in Polynesia and inform the patterns seen in other island contexts.

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