Bird populations most exposed to climate change are less sensitive to climatic variation

Bailey, Liam D., van de Pol, Martijn, Adriaensen, Frank, Arct, Aneta, Barba, Emilio, Bellamy, Paul E., Bonamour, Suzanne, Bouvier, Jean Charles, Burgess, Malcolm D., Charmantier, Anne, Cusimano, Camillo, Doligez, Blandine, Drobniak, Szymon M., Dubiec, Anna, Eens, Marcel, Eeva, Tapio, Ferns, Peter N., Goodenough, Anne E., Hartley, Ian R., Hinsley, Shelley A., Ivankina, Elena, Juškaitis, Rimvydas, Kempenaers, Bart, Kerimov, Anvar B., Lavigne, Claire, Leivits, Agu, Mainwaring, Mark C., Matthysen, Erik, Nilsson, Jan Åke, Orell, Markku, Rytkönen, Seppo, Senar, Juan Carlos, Sheldon, Ben C., Sorace, Alberto, Stenning, Martyn J., Török, János, van Oers, Kees, Vatka, Emma, Vriend, Stefan J.G., and Visser, Marcel E. (2022) Bird populations most exposed to climate change are less sensitive to climatic variation. Nature Communications, 13. 2112.

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Abstract

The phenology of many species shows strong sensitivity to climate change; however, with few large scale intra-specific studies it is unclear how such sensitivity varies over a species’ range. We document large intra-specific variation in phenological sensitivity to temperature using laying date information from 67 populations of two co-familial European songbirds, the great tit (Parus major) and blue tit (Cyanistes caeruleus), covering a large part of their breeding range. Populations inhabiting deciduous habitats showed stronger phenological sensitivity than those in evergreen and mixed habitats. However, populations with higher sensitivity tended to have experienced less rapid change in climate over the past decades, such that populations with high phenological sensitivity will not necessarily exhibit the strongest phenological advancement. Our results show that to effectively assess the impact of climate change on phenology across a species’ range it will be necessary to account for intra-specific variation in phenological sensitivity, climate change exposure, and the ecological characteristics of a population.

Item ID: 74434
Item Type: Article (Research - C1)
ISSN: 2041-1723
Copyright Information: © The Author(s) 2022. This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/ licenses/by/4.0/.
Funders: Australian Research Council (ARC)
Projects and Grants: ARC DE180100202
Date Deposited: 10 Jun 2022 05:12
FoR Codes: 31 BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES > 3103 Ecology > 310307 Population ecology @ 75%
49 MATHEMATICAL SCIENCES > 4905 Statistics > 490502 Biostatistics @ 25%
SEO Codes: 19 ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY, CLIMATE CHANGE AND NATURAL HAZARDS > 1905 Understanding climate change > 190507 Global effects of climate change (excl. Australia, New Zealand, Antarctica and the South Pacific) (excl. social impacts) @ 100%
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