Modelling and analysis of human–mosquito malaria transmission dynamics in Bangladesh

Kuddus, Md Abdul, and Rahman, Azizur (2022) Modelling and analysis of human–mosquito malaria transmission dynamics in Bangladesh. Mathematics and Computers in Simulation, 193. pp. 123-138.

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Malaria, a parasite based infectious disease spread by anopheles mosquitos, is widespread, affecting people of all ages. Malaria blood-borne pathogens cause approximately 110 million clinical cases of malaria and between one and two million deaths associated with Plasmodium falciparum each year worldwide, including Bangladesh. In this paper, we develop a human–mosquito transmission dynamics malaria model and analyse of the system properties and solutions. Both analytical and numerical results suggest that if the basic reproduction number R0 < 1, the disease-free equilibrium is asymptotically stable, meaning malaria naturally dies out. Further, if R0 > 1, the malaria disease persists in the population. We also provide the model calibration to estimate parameters with year-wise malaria incidence data from 2001 to 2014 in Bangladesh. Sensitivity analysis also performs to identify the most critical parameters through the partial rank correlation coefficient method. We found that the contact rate of both humans and mosquitoes had the most extensive influence on malaria prevalence. Finally, the impacts of progression rate, disease-related death rate, recovery rate and the rate of losing immunity are examined through numerical simulations and graphical analysis.

Item ID: 72739
Item Type: Article (Research - C1)
ISSN: 1872-7166
Keywords: Malaria model; Human and mosquito population; Stability and sensitivity analysis; Simulation and graphical analysis; Bangladesh
Copyright Information: © 2021 International Association for Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (IMACS). Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Date Deposited: 24 May 2022 23:21
FoR Codes: 49 MATHEMATICAL SCIENCES > 4901 Applied mathematics > 490102 Biological mathematics @ 100%
SEO Codes: 20 HEALTH > 2004 Public health (excl. specific population health) > 200404 Disease distribution and transmission (incl. surveillance and response) @ 100%
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