Red hot frogs: identifying the Australian frogs most at risk of extinction

Geyle, Hayley M., Hoskin, Conrad J., Bower, Deborah S., Catullo, Renee, Clulow, Simon, Driessen, Michael, Daniels, Katrina, Garnett, Stephen T., Gilbert, Deon, Heard, Geoffrey W., Hero, Jean-Marc, Hines, Harry, Hoffmann, Emily P., Hollis, Greg, Hunter, David A., Lemckert, Frank, Mahony, Michael, Marantelli, Gerry, McDonald, Keith R., Mitchell, Nicola J., Newell, David, Roberts, J. Dale, Scheele, Ben C., Scroggie, Michael, Vanderduys, Eric, Wassens, Skye, West, Matt, Woinarski, John C.Z., and Gillespie, Graeme R. (2022) Red hot frogs: identifying the Australian frogs most at risk of extinction. Pacific Conservation Biology. (In Press)

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Abstract

More than a third of the world’s amphibian species are listed as Threatened or Extinct, with a recent assessment identifying 45 Australian frogs (18.4% of the currently recognised species) as ‘Threatened’ based on IUCN criteria. We applied structured expert elicitation to 26 frogs assessed as Critically Endangered and Endangered to estimate their probability of extinction by 2040. We also investigated whether participant experience (measured as a self-assigned categorical score, i.e. ‘expert’ or ‘non-expert’) influenced the estimates. Collation and analysis of participant opinion indicated that eight species are at high risk (>50% chance) of becoming extinct by 2040, with the disease chytridiomycosis identified as the primary threat. A further five species are at moderate–high risk (30–50% chance), primarily due to climate change. Fourteen of the 26 frog species are endemic to Queensland, with many species restricted to small geographic ranges that are susceptible to stochastic events (e.g. a severe heatwave or a large bushfire). Experts were more likely to rate extinction probability higher for poorly known species (those with <10 experts), while non-experts were more likely to rate extinction probability higher for better-known species. However, scores converged following discussion, indicating that there was greater consensus in the estimates of extinction probability. Increased resourcing and management intervention are urgently needed to avert future extinctions of Australia’s frogs. Key priorities include developing and supporting captive management and establishing or extending in-situ population refuges to alleviate the impacts of disease and climate change.

Item ID: 72389
Item Type: Article (Research - C1)
ISSN: 2204-4604
Copyright Information: © CSIRO 2021 Open Access CC BY
Date Deposited: 14 Feb 2022 23:54
FoR Codes: 41 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES > 4104 Environmental management > 410401 Conservation and biodiversity @ 100%
SEO Codes: 18 ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT > 1806 Terrestrial systems and management > 180606 Terrestrial biodiversity @ 70%
18 ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT > 1803 Fresh, ground and surface water systems and management > 180301 Assessment and management of freshwater ecosystems @ 30%
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