Drowning risk analysis comparing surf bather subgroups

Morgan, Damian, and Ozanne-Smith, Joan (2021) Drowning risk analysis comparing surf bather subgroups. Applied Sciences, 11 (24). 12047.

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Abstract

The study assessed the utility of risk analysis for advancing knowledge on drowning risk factors. The setting was unintentional drowning of surf bathers in Australia. Bathers reported earlier exposure to selected risk factors (swimming ability, wave height associated with rip currents and surf bathing experience) and were observed for water exposure (in minutes). These data were then assembled in mathematical models. The analysis forecast relative drowning risk pertaining to risk markers representing selected surf bather subgroups (gender, age and water activity). Contextualized through previous study findings, comparison of results with a gold standard obtained from mortality data generated new surf bather drowning hypotheses suitable for future testing by rigorous analytical epidemiologic designs. The hypotheses were: (1) The male to female comparative surf bather drowning rate is explained primarily by differences in crude water exposure; (2) the association of cardio-vascular medical conditions with surf bather drowning is stronger for older surf bathers compared to younger surf bathers; and (3) other risk contributors to surf bather drowning are: Poorly calibrated perception of bathing ability (overconfidence) and use of alcohol. Nonetheless, drowning rates appear generally consistent with time exposure to water. The study findings may also support drowning prevention strategies targeting risk marker subgroups.

Item ID: 71158
Item Type: Article (Research - C1)
ISSN: 2076-3417
Keywords: drowning; risk analysis; risk factors; exposure; surf bathers
Copyright Information: Copyright: © 2021 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
Research Data: https://federation.figshare.com/articles/dataset/Surf_Bather_Drowning_Risk_Analysis_Calculations/16870009
Date Deposited: 19 Dec 2021 23:18
FoR Codes: 42 HEALTH SCIENCES > 4202 Epidemiology > 420204 Epidemiological methods @ 60%
42 HEALTH SCIENCES > 4206 Public health > 420604 Injury prevention @ 30%
40 ENGINEERING > 4011 Environmental engineering > 401104 Health and ecological risk assessment @ 10%
SEO Codes: 20 HEALTH > 2004 Public health (excl. specific population health) > 200408 Injury prevention and control @ 70%
19 ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY, CLIMATE CHANGE AND NATURAL HAZARDS > 1904 Natural hazards > 190499 Natural hazards not elsewhere classified @ 20%
28 EXPANDING KNOWLEDGE > 2801 Expanding knowledge > 280112 Expanding knowledge in the health sciences @ 10%
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