Contribution of climate models and APSIM phenological parameters to uncertainties in spring wheat simulations: application of SUFI‐2 algorithm in northeast Australia

Collins, Brian, Najeeb, Ullah, Luo, Qunying, and Tan, Daniel K.Y. (2022) Contribution of climate models and APSIM phenological parameters to uncertainties in spring wheat simulations: application of SUFI‐2 algorithm in northeast Australia. Journal of Agronomy and Crop Science, 208 (2). pp. 225-242.

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Abstract

We used SUFI-2 for the first time to calibrate the phenology module of the APSIM-wheat model for 10 spring wheat cultivars cultivated in northeast Australia (south-eastern Queensland). Calibration resulted in an average root mean square error (RMSE) of 5.5 days for developmental stages from stem elongation up to flowering. Projections from 33 climate models under the representative concentration pathway 8.5 were used for simulations at 17 sites. Using adapted sowing times, we simulated significantly shorter crop cycles and grain yield improvements for the period 2036–2065 relative to 1990–2019 for three selected cultivars (Hartog, Scout and Gregory). Photoperiod and vernalisation sensitivities were shown to be the largest and smallest contributors to total uncertainties in the simulated flowering day and grain yield, respectively. Uncertainties in climate models had a relatively minor contribution to the total uncertainties in the simulated values of target traits. This contribution significantly increased when climate change impact on the target traits was quantified.

Item ID: 71093
Item Type: Article (Research - C1)
ISSN: 1439-037X
Keywords: Australian wheatbelt, calibration, climate change, crop model, sensitivity analysis, uncertainty analysis
Copyright Information: © 2021 Wiley-VCH GmbH
Date Deposited: 07 Dec 2021 02:02
FoR Codes: 41 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES > 4101 Climate change impacts and adaptation > 410199 Climate change impacts and adaptation not elsewhere classified @ 40%
49 MATHEMATICAL SCIENCES > 4905 Statistics > 490501 Applied statistics @ 40%
30 AGRICULTURAL, VETERINARY AND FOOD SCIENCES > 3004 Crop and pasture production > 300404 Crop and pasture biochemistry and physiology @ 20%
SEO Codes: 19 ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY, CLIMATE CHANGE AND NATURAL HAZARDS > 1905 Understanding climate change > 190501 Climate change models @ 50%
19 ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY, CLIMATE CHANGE AND NATURAL HAZARDS > 1905 Understanding climate change > 190504 Effects of climate change on Australia (excl. social impacts) @ 50%
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