Tackling extremes: challenges for ecological and evolutionary research on extreme climatic events

Bailey, Liam D., and van de Pol, Martijn (2016) Tackling extremes: challenges for ecological and evolutionary research on extreme climatic events. Journal of Animal Ecology, 85 (1). pp. 85-96.

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Abstract

Extreme climatic events (ECEs) are predicted to become more frequent as the climate changes. A rapidly increasing number of studies - though few on animals - suggest that the biological consequences of ECEs can be severe. However, ecological research on the impacts of ECEs has been limited by a lack of cohesiveness and structure. ECEs are often poorly defined and have often been confusingly equated with climatic variability, making comparison between studies difficult. In addition, a focus on short-term studies has provided us with little information on the long-term implications of ECEs, and the descriptive and anecdotal nature of many studies has meant it is still unclear what the key research questions are. Synthesizing the current state of work is essential to identify ways to make progress. We conduct a synthesis of the literature and discuss conceptual and practical challenges faced by research on ECEs. We consider three steps to advance research. First, we discuss the importance of choosing an ECE definition and identify the pros and cons of 'climatological' and 'biological' definitions of ECEs. Secondly, we advocate research beyond short-term descriptive studies to address questions concerning the long-term implications of ECEs, focussing on selective pressures and phenotypically plastic responses and how they might differ from responses to a changing climatic mean. Finally, we encourage a greater focus on multi-event studies that help us understand the implications of changing patterns of ECEs, through the combined use of modelling, experimental and observational field studies. This study aims to open a discussion on the definitions, questions and methods currently used to study ECEs, which will lead to a more cohesive approach to future ECE research.

Item ID: 69643
Item Type: Article (Research - C1)
ISSN: 1365-2656
Keywords: Climate change, Climate events, Climate variability, Extreme climate, Multi-event study, Phenotypic plasticity, Predictability, Selective pressure, Threshold responses, Truncation selection
Copyright Information: © 2015 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2015 British Ecological Society.
Funders: Australian Research Council (ARC)
Projects and Grants: ARC FT120100204
Date Deposited: 19 Oct 2021 02:33
FoR Codes: 31 BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES > 3104 Evolutionary biology > 310406 Evolutionary impacts of climate change @ 25%
41 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES > 4101 Climate change impacts and adaptation > 410102 Ecological impacts of climate change and ecological adaptation @ 75%
SEO Codes: 19 ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY, CLIMATE CHANGE AND NATURAL HAZARDS > 1905 Understanding climate change > 190507 Global effects of climate change (excl. Australia, New Zealand, Antarctica and the South Pacific) (excl. social impacts) @ 100%
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