Frequency of compound hot–dry weather extremes has significantly increased in Australia since 1889

Collins, Brian (2022) Frequency of compound hot–dry weather extremes has significantly increased in Australia since 1889. Journal of Agronomy and Crop Science. (In Press)

[img] PDF - Published Version
Restricted to Repository staff only

View at Publisher Website: https://doi.org/10.1111/jac.12545
 
1


Abstract

There is high confidence that climate change has increased the probability of concurrent temperature-precipitation extremes, changed their spatial-temporal variations and affected the relationships between drivers of such natural hazards. However, the extent of such changes has been less investigated in Australia. Daily data spanning the period 1889-2019 (131 years) were extracted from SILO gridded dataset at 700 grid cells (1◦ × 1◦) across Australia to calculate annual and seasonal mean daily maximum temperature (MMT) and total precipitation (TPR). A nonparametric multivariate copula framework was adopted to estimate the return period of compound hot-dry (CHD) events based on an ‘And’ hazard scenario (hotter than a threshold ‘And’ drier than a threshold). CHD extremes were defined as years with joint return periods of longer than 25 years calculated over the period 1889-2019. Mann-Kendall nonparametric tests were used to analyse trends in MMT and TPR as well as in the frequency of univariate and CHD extremes. Results showed a general cooling-wetting trend over 1889-1989. Significant increasing trends were detected over 1990-2019 in the frequency and severity of hot extremes across the country while trends in dry extremes were mostly insignificant (and decreasing). A significant increase in the association between temperature and precipitation was identified at various temporal scales. While the frequency of CHD extremes was mostly stable over 1889-1989, it significantly increased between 1990 and 2019 at 44% of studied grid cells, mostly located in the north, south-east and southwest.

Item ID: 69389
Item Type: Article (Research - C1)
ISSN: 0931-2250
Keywords: Climate change; Mann-Kendall test; Moran’s I statistic; Nonparametric copula; Spatial homogeneity; Trend analysis.
Copyright Information: © 2021 Wiley-VCH GmbH.
Date Deposited: 30 Sep 2021 04:58
FoR Codes: 37 EARTH SCIENCES > 3702 Climate change science > 370201 Climate change processes @ 50%
37 EARTH SCIENCES > 3701 Atmospheric sciences > 370101 Adverse weather events @ 50%
SEO Codes: 19 ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY, CLIMATE CHANGE AND NATURAL HAZARDS > 1904 Natural hazards > 190401 Climatological hazards (e.g. extreme temperatures, drought and wildfires) @ 40%
19 ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY, CLIMATE CHANGE AND NATURAL HAZARDS > 1905 Understanding climate change > 190504 Effects of climate change on Australia (excl. social impacts) @ 30%
19 ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY, CLIMATE CHANGE AND NATURAL HAZARDS > 1905 Understanding climate change > 190502 Climate variability (excl. social impacts) @ 30%
Downloads: Total: 1
More Statistics

Actions (Repository Staff Only)

Item Control Page Item Control Page