Vaccines and variants: modelling insights into emerging issues in COVID-19 epidemiology

Caldwell, Jamie M., Le, Xuan, McIntosh, Lorin, Meehan, Michael T., Ogunlade, Samson, Ragonnet, Romain, O'Neill, Genevieve K., Trauer, Tom, and McBryde, Emma S. (2021) Vaccines and variants: modelling insights into emerging issues in COVID-19 epidemiology. Paediatric Respiratory Reviews. (In Press)

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Abstract

Mathematical modelling has played a pivotal role in understanding the epidemiology of and guiding public health responses to the ongoing coronavirus disease of 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Here, we review the role of epidemiological models in understanding evolving epidemic characteristics, including the effects of vaccination and Variants of Concern (VoC). We highlight ways in which models continue to provide important insights, including (1) calculating the herd immunity threshold and evaluating its limitations; (2) verifying that nascent vaccines can prevent severe disease, infection, and transmission but may be less efficacious against VoC; (3) determining optimal vaccine allocation stratgies under efficacy and supply constraints; and (4) determining that VoC are more transmissible and lethal than previously circulating strains, and that immune escape may jeopardize vaccine-induced herd immunity. Finally, we explore how models can help us anticipate and prepare for future stages of COVID-19 epidemiology (and that of other diseases) through forecasts and scenario projections, given current uncertainties and data limitations.

Item ID: 69263
Item Type: Article (Research - C1)
ISSN: 1526-0550
Copyright Information: © 2021 Published by Elsevier Ltd.
Date Deposited: 08 Sep 2021 01:14
FoR Codes: 42 HEALTH SCIENCES > 4202 Epidemiology > 420205 Epidemiological modelling @ 70%
49 MATHEMATICAL SCIENCES > 4901 Applied mathematics > 490102 Biological mathematics @ 30%
SEO Codes: 20 HEALTH > 2004 Public health (excl. specific population health) > 200404 Disease distribution and transmission (incl. surveillance and response) @ 80%
20 HEALTH > 2002 Evaluation of health and support services > 200205 Health policy evaluation @ 20%
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