A configural model of expert judgement as a preliminary epidemiological study of injury problems: an application to drowning

Morgan, Damian, and Ozanne-Smith, Joan (2019) A configural model of expert judgement as a preliminary epidemiological study of injury problems: an application to drowning. PLoS ONE, 14 (10). e0211166.

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Robust epidemiological studies identifying determinants of negative health outcomes require significant research effort. Expert judgement is proposed as an efficient alternative or preliminary research design for risk factor identification associated with unintentional injury. This proposition was tested in a multi-factorial balanced experimental design using specialist judges (N = 18), lifeguards and surfers, to assess the risk contribution to drowning for swimming ability, surf bathing experience, and wave height. All factors provided unique contributions to drowning risk (p < .001). An interaction (p = .02) indicated that occasional surf bathers face a proportionally increased risk of drowning at increased wave heights relative to experienced surf bathers. Although findings were limited by strict criteria, and no gold standard comparison data were available, the study provides new evidence on causal risk factors for a drowning scenario. Countermeasures based on these factors are proposed. Further application of the method may assist in developing new interventions to reduce unintentional injury.

Item ID: 68847
Item Type: Article (Research - C1)
ISSN: 1932-6203
Copyright Information: © 2019 Morgan, Ozanne-Smith. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
Research Data: https://doi.org/10.25955/5c2d8cf06a33a
Date Deposited: 28 Jul 2021 06:21
FoR Codes: 42 HEALTH SCIENCES > 4202 Epidemiology > 420204 Epidemiological methods @ 60%
42 HEALTH SCIENCES > 4206 Public health > 420604 Injury prevention @ 40%
SEO Codes: 20 HEALTH > 2004 Public health (excl. specific population health) > 200408 Injury prevention and control @ 100%
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