Will the emblematic southern conifer Araucaria angustifolia survive to climate change in Brazil?

Castro, Monik Begname, Barbosa, Ana Carolina Maioli Campos, Pompeu, Patrícia Vieira, Eisenlohr, Pedro V., de Assis Pereira, Gabriel, Mattos Guimaraes Apgaua, Deborah, Pires-Oliveira, João Carlos, Barbosa, João Paulo Rodrigues Alves Delfino, Fontes, Marco Aurélio Leite, dos Santos, Rubens Manoel, and Tng, David Yue Phin (2020) Will the emblematic southern conifer Araucaria angustifolia survive to climate change in Brazil? Biodiversity and Conservation, 29 (2). pp. 591-607.

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Conifer forests dominated by Araucaria pines (Araucaria angustifolia) are emblematic of the humid forests in the southeast of Brazil, South America. However, these forests are highly fragmented and threatened by climate change. Despite the ecological and cultural importance of the dominant species (A. angustifolia), our knowledge of its climatic niche is incomplete. We aimed to understand the environmental drivers of the distribution and the climatic vulnerability of A. angustifolia in Brazil by modelling the extent of suitable climatic niches available for the species under the current climate and future climate scenarios. The potential distribution predicted by our model for the present was consistent with the real distribution of this species. However, our projections for future distributions show a decline in suitable climatic niches for the species, and a tendency for the species to be confined to high altitude mountain ranges and plateaus of south and southeast Brazil. Critically, most of the current protected areas will cease to harbor suitable climatic niches for the species. We conclude that prioritizing and expanding protected areas in important mountain ranges will be essential for protecting of the species in situ and to safeguard it from further habitat loss. Further research on population-level physiological responses of the species to climatic change and the role of biotic interactions will help optimize future modelling work.

Item ID: 67254
Item Type: Article (Research - C1)
ISSN: 1572-9710
Keywords: Brazilian pine, Climatic envelope, Extinction risk, Global warming, Potential species distribution modelling
Copyright Information: © 2019, Springer Nature B.V.
Funders: Fundação Grupo Boticário de Conservação à Natureza (FGBCN), Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior, Australian Endeavour Research Fellowship, Schlumberger Faculty of the Future Fellowship
Projects and Grants: FGBCN Grant Number: 1015_20142
Date Deposited: 28 Apr 2021 03:43
FoR Codes: 41 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES > 4102 Ecological applications > 410206 Landscape ecology @ 20%
41 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES > 4101 Climate change impacts and adaptation > 410102 Ecological impacts of climate change and ecological adaptation @ 80%
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