Evaluation of the effect of border closure on COVID-19 incidence rates across nine African countries: an interrupted time series study

Emeto, Theophilus I., Alele, Faith O., and Ilesanmi, Olayinka S. (2021) Evaluation of the effect of border closure on COVID-19 incidence rates across nine African countries: an interrupted time series study. Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene. (In Press)

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Abstract

Background: Border closure is one of the policy changes implemented to mitigate against coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). We evaluated the effect of border closure on the incidence rate of COVID-19 across nine African countries.

Methods: An interrupted time series analysis was used to assess COVID-19 incidence rates in Egypt, Tunisia, Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Ethiopia, Kenya, Ghana, Nigeria, Senegal and South Africa (SA). Data were collected between 14 February and 19 July 2020 from online data repositories. The linear trend and magnitude of change were evaluated using the itsa function with ordinary least-squares regression in Stata with a 7-d deferred interruption point, which allows a period of diffusion post-border closure.

Results: Overall, the countries recorded an increase in the incidence rate of COVID-19 after border closure. However, when compared with matched control groups, SA, Nigeria, Ghana, Egypt and Kenya showed a higher incidence rate trend. In contrast, Ethiopia, DRC and Tunisia showed a lower trend compared with their controls.

Conclusions: The implementation of border closures within African countries had minimal effect on the incidence of COVID-19. The inclusion of other control measures such as enhanced testing capacity and improved surveillance activities will reveal the effectiveness of border closure measures.

Item ID: 67062
Item Type: Article (Research - C1)
ISSN: 1878-3503
Keywords: Africa,interrupted time series analysis, covid-19, border closure
Copyright Information: © The Author(s) 2021. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene. This is an Open Accessarticle distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/), which permits non-commercial re-use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.For commercial re-use, please contactjournals.permissions@oup.com
Date Deposited: 21 Jun 2021 01:04
FoR Codes: 42 HEALTH SCIENCES > 4202 Epidemiology > 420205 Epidemiological modelling @ 50%
42 HEALTH SCIENCES > 4202 Epidemiology > 420204 Epidemiological methods @ 30%
42 HEALTH SCIENCES > 4202 Epidemiology > 420202 Disease surveillance @ 20%
SEO Codes: 20 HEALTH > 2001 Clinical health > 200104 Prevention of human diseases and conditions @ 25%
20 HEALTH > 2004 Public health (excl. specific population health) > 200404 Disease distribution and transmission (incl. surveillance and response) @ 50%
20 HEALTH > 2002 Evaluation of health and support services > 200205 Health policy evaluation @ 25%
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