Long-term thermal sensitivity of Earth's tropical forests

Sullivan, Martin J.P., Lewis, Simon L., Affum-baffoe, Kofi, Castilho, Carolina, Costa, Flávia, Sanchez, Aida Cuni, Ewango, Corneille E.N., Hubau, Wannes, Marimon, Beatriz, Monteagudo-Mendoza, Abel, Qie, Lan, Sonké, Bonaventure, Vasquez Martinez, Rodolfo, Baker, Timothy R., Brienen, Roel J.W., Feldpausch, Ted R., Galbraith, David, Gloor, Manuel, Malhi, Yadvinder, Aiba, Shin-Ichiro, Alexiades, Miguel N., Almeida, Everton C., de Oliveira, Edmar Almeida, Alvarez Davila, Esteban, Loayza, Patricia Alvarez, Andrade, Ana, Vieira, Simone Aparecida, Aragão, Luiz E.O.C., Araujo-murakami, Alejandro, Arets, Eric J.M.M., Arroyo, Luzmila, Ashton, Peter, Aymard, Gerardo C., Baccaro, Fabricio B., Banin, Lindsay F., Baraloto, Christopher, Camargo, Plinio Barbosa, Barlow, Jos, Barroso, Jorcely, Bastin, Jean-Francois, Batterman, Sarah A., Beeckman, Hans, Begne, Serge K., Bennett, Amy C., Berenguer, Erika, Berry, Nicholas, Blanc, Lilian, Boeckx, Pascal, Bogaert, Jan, Bonal, Damien, Bongers, Frans, Bradford, Matt, Brearley, Francis Q., Brncic, Terry, Brown, Foster, Burban, Benoit, Camargo, Jose Luis, Castro, Wendeson, Ceron, Carlos, Ribeiro, Sabina Cerruto, Moscoso, Victor Chama, Chave, Jerome, Chezeaux, Eric, Clark, Connie J., de Souza, Fernanda Coelho, Collins, Murray, Comiskey, James A., Cornejo Valverde, Fernando, Corrales Medina, Massiel, da Costa, Lola, Dancak, Martin, Dargie, Greta C., Davies, Stuart, Davila Cardozo, Nallaret, de Haulleville, Thales, de Medeiros, Marcelo Brilhante, del Aguila Pasquel, Jhon, Derroire, Geraldine, Di Fiore, Anthony, Doucet, Jean-Louis, Dourdain, Aurelie, Droissart, Vincent, Fernanda Duque, Luisa, Ekoungoulou, Romeo, Elias, Fernando, Erwin, Terry, Esquivel-Muelbert, Adriane, Fauset, Sophie, Ferreira, Joice, Flores Llampazo, Gerardo, Foli, Ernest, Ford, Andrew, Gilpin, Martin, Hall, Jefferson S., Hamer, Keith C., Hamilton, Alan C., Harris, David J., Hart, Terese B., Hedl, Radim, Herault, Bruno, Herrera, Rafael, Higuchi, Niro, Hladik, Annette, Honorio Coronado, Euridice, Huamantupa-chuquimaco, Isau, Huaraca Huasco, Walter, Jeffery, Kathryn J., Jimenez-Rojas, Eliana, Kalamandeen, Michelle, Djuikouo, Marie Noel Kamdem, Kearsley, Elizabeth, Umetsu, Ricardo Keichi, Kho, Lip Khoon, Killeen, Timothy, Kitayama, Kanehiro, Klitgaard, Bente, Koch, Alexander, Labriere, Nicolas, Laurance, William, Laurance, Susan, Leal, Miguel E., Levesley, Aurora, Lima, Adriano J.N., Lisingo, Janvier, Lopes, Aline P., López-gonzález, Gabriela, Lovejoy, Tom, Lovett, Jon C., Lowe, Richard, Magnusson, William E., Malumbres-Olarte, Jagoba, Manzatto, Angelo Gilberto, Marimon, Ben Hur, Marshall, Andrew R., Marthews, Toby, de Almeida Reis, Simone Matias, Maycock, Colin, Melgaco, Karina, Mendoza, Casimiro, Metali, Faizah, Mihindou, Vianet, Milliken, William, Mitchard, Edward T.A., Morandi, Paulo S., Mossman, Hannah L., Nagy, Laszlo, Nascimento, Henrique, Neill, David, Nilus, Reuben, Núñez Vargas, Percy, Palacios, Walter, Camacho, Nadir Pallqui, Peacock, Julie, Pendry, Colin, Penuela Mora, Maria Cristina, Pickavance, Georgia C., Pipoly, John, Pitman, Nigel, Playfair, Maureen, Poorter, Lourens, Poulsen, John R., Poulsen, Axel Dalberg, Preziosi, Richard, Prieto, Adriana, Primack, Richard B., Ramírez-angulo, Hirma, Reitsma, Jan, Rejou-Mechain, Maxime, Restrepo Correa, Zorayda, de Sousa, Thaiane Rodrigues, Rodriguez Bayona, Lily, Roopsind, Anand, Rudas, Agustín, Rutishauser, Ervan, Abu Salim, Kamariah, Salomão, Rafael P., Schietti, Juliana, Sheil, Douglas, Silva, Richarlly C., Silva Espejo, Javier, Valeria, Camila Silva, Silveira, Marcos, Simo-Droissart, Murielle, Simon, Marcelo Fragomeni, Singh, James, Soto Shareva, Yahn Carlos, Stahl, Clement, Stropp, Juliana, Sukri, Rahayu, Sunderland, Terry, Svatek, Martin, Swaine, Michael D., Swamy, Varun, Taedoumg, Hermann, Talbot, Joey, Taplin, James, Taylor, David, ter Steege, Hans, Terborgh, John, Thomas, Raquel, Thomas, Sean C., Torres-Lezama, Armando, Umunay, Peter, Valenzuela Gamarra, Luis, Van Der Heijden, Geertje, van der Hout, Peter, Van Der Meer, Peter, van Nieuwstadt, Mark, Verbeeck, Hans, Vernimmen, Ronald, Vicentini, Alberto, Guimaraes Vieira, Ima Celia, Torre, Emilio Vilanova, Vleminckx, Jason, Vos, Vincent, Wang, Ophelia, White, Lee J.Y., Willcock, Simon, Woods, John T., Wortel, Verginia, Young, Kenneth, Zagt, Roderick, Zemagho, Lise, Zuidema, Pieter A., Zwerts, Joeri A., and Phillips, Oliver L. (2020) Long-term thermal sensitivity of Earth's tropical forests. Science, 368 (6493). pp. 869-874.

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Abstract

The sensitivity of tropical forest carbon to climate is a key uncertainty in predicting global climate change. Although short-term drying and warming are known to affect forests, it is unknown if such effects translate into long-term responses. Here, we analyze 590 permanent plots measured across the tropics to derive the equilibrium climate controls on forest carbon. Maximum temperature is the most important predictor of aboveground biomass (-9.1 megagrams of carbon per hectare per degree Celsius), primarily by reducing woody productivity, and has a greater impact per degrees C in the hottest forests (>32.2 degrees C). Our results nevertheless reveal greater thermal resilience than observations of short-term variation imply. To realize the long-term climate adaptation potential of tropical forests requires both protecting them and stabilizing Earth's climate.

Item ID: 65472
Item Type: Article (Research - C1)
ISSN: 1095-9203
Copyright Information: Copyright © 2020 The Authors, some rights reserved.
Funders: European Research Council (ERC), Natural Environment Research Council (NERC), European Union (EU), Leverhulme Trust, Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation (GBMF), David and Lucile Packard Foundation, State of Sao Paulo Research Foundation (FAPESP), National Council for Scientific and Technological Development (CNPq), Agence Nationale pour la Recherche (ANR), Conservation International, Missouri Botanical Garden, Smithsonian Institution, Wildlife Conservation Society, National Geographic Society, Centre for International Forestry (CIFOR), Gabon's National Parks Agency (ANPN)
Projects and Grants: EU Fifth Framework Programme, EU Sixth Framework Programme, EU Seventh Framework Programme
Date Deposited: 20 Jan 2021 03:33
FoR Codes: 05 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES > 0502 Environmental Science and Management > 050202 Conservation and Biodiversity @ 100%
SEO Codes: 96 ENVIRONMENT > 9608 Flora, Fauna and Biodiversity > 960899 Flora, Fauna and Biodiversity of Environments not elsewhere classified @ 100%
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