Oskouian, Mohammad, Heron, Malcolm L., and Mobasheri, Mohammad R. (2008) Quantitative precipitation forecast in the Caspian Sea/Alburz Mountain region: MM5 verification. Journal of Applied Sciences, 8 (14). pp. 2523-2533.

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Abstract

This study presents verification of QPF of a Mesoscale Modelling system (Pennsylvania State University/NCAR Fifth generation MM5) in the region bounded by southern shores of Caspian Sea and northern slopes of the Alburz Mountains in Iran, against the selected observation site`s rainfall data for the 59 day period on September and October 2004. The choice of MM5 parameterization schemes follows the results of a previous sensitivity test in the region. The MM5 forecasts of light and moderate precipitation thresholds are more accurate than the heavy precipitation threshold. Analysis of the bias scores shows that MM5 has a tendency to forecast higher number of rainy events in lower rain thresholds at the selected observation points. Equitable treat scores show that except for some isolated points in the light rain threshold the 9 km domain produces better forecasts than the 27 km domain. The nearest grid point approximation in most cases produced better precipitation forecasts than the Cressman weighted average interpolation.

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