Early analysis of the Australian COVID-19 epidemic

Price, David J., Shearer, Freya M., Meehan, Michael T., McBryde, Emma, Moss, Robert, Golding, Nick, Conway, Eamon J., Dawson, Peter, Cromer, Deborah, Wood, James, Abbott, Sam, McVernon, Jodie, and Mccaw, James M. (2020) Early analysis of the Australian COVID-19 epidemic. eLife, 9. e58785.

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Abstract

As of 1 May 2020, there had been 6808 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Australia. Of these, 98 had died from the disease. The epidemic had been in decline since mid-March, with 308 cases confirmed nationally since 14 April. This suggests that the collective actions of the Australian public and government authorities in response to COVID-19 were sufficiently early and assiduous to avert a public health crisis – for now. Analysing factors that contribute to individual country experiences of COVID-19, such as the intensity and timing of public health interventions, will assist in the next stage of response planning globally. We describe how the epidemic and public health response unfolded in Australia up to 13 April. We estimate that the effective reproduction number was likely below one in each Australian state since mid-March and forecast that clinical demand would remain below capacity thresholds over the forecast period (from mid-to-late April).

Item ID: 64756
Item Type: Article (Research - C1)
ISSN: 2050-084X
Copyright Information: © Copyright Price et al. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use and redistribution provided that the original author and source are credited.
Funders: Australian Government Department of Health (AGDH)
Date Deposited: 19 Jan 2021 02:21
FoR Codes: 42 HEALTH SCIENCES > 4202 Epidemiology > 420205 Epidemiological modelling @ 100%
SEO Codes: 92 HEALTH > 9204 Public Health (excl. Specific Population Health) > 920404 Disease Distribution and Transmission (incl. Surveillance and Response) @ 100%
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