The effect of Wolbachia on dengue outbreaks when dengue is repeatedly introduced

Ndii, Meksiallis Z., Allingham, David, Hickson, R.I., and Glass, Kathryn (2016) The effect of Wolbachia on dengue outbreaks when dengue is repeatedly introduced. Theoretical Population Biology, 111. pp. 9-15.

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Use of the Wolbachia bacterium is a proposed new strategy to reduce dengue transmission, which results in around 390 million individuals infected annually. In places with strong variations in climatic conditions such as temperature and rainfall, dengue epidemics generally occur only at a certain time of the year. Where dengue is not endemic, the time of year in which imported cases enter the population plays a crucial role in determining the likelihood of outbreak occurrence. We use a mathematical model to study the effects of Wolbachia on dengue transmission dynamics and dengue seasonality. We focus in regions where dengue is not endemic but can spread due to the presence of a dengue vector and the arrival of people with dengue on a regular basis. Our results show that the time-window in which outbreaks can occur is reduced in the presence of Wolbachia-carrying Aedes aegypti mosquitoes by up to six weeks each year. We find that Wolbachia reduces overall case numbers by up to 80%. The strongest effect is obtained when the amplitude of the seasonal forcing is low (0.02-0.30). The benefits of Wolbachia also depend on the transmission rate, with the bacteria most effective at moderate transmission rates ranging between 0.08-0.12. Such rates are consistent with fitted estimates for Cairns, Australia.

Item ID: 64034
Item Type: Article (Research - C1)
ISSN: 1096-0325
Copyright Information: © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Funders: University of Newcastle, Australia
Date Deposited: 10 Sep 2020 03:52
FoR Codes: 49 MATHEMATICAL SCIENCES > 4901 Applied mathematics > 490102 Biological mathematics @ 34%
42 HEALTH SCIENCES > 4202 Epidemiology > 420202 Disease surveillance @ 33%
46 INFORMATION AND COMPUTING SCIENCES > 4602 Artificial intelligence > 460207 Modelling and simulation @ 33%
SEO Codes: 92 HEALTH > 9204 Public Health (excl. Specific Population Health) > 920404 Disease Distribution and Transmission (incl. Surveillance and Response) @ 60%
97 EXPANDING KNOWLEDGE > 970101 Expanding Knowledge in the Mathematical Sciences @ 40%
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