Projecting date palm distribution in Iran under climate change using topography, physicochemical soil properties, soil taxonomy, land use and climate data

Shabani, Farzin, Kumar, Lalit, and Taylor, Subhashni (2014) Projecting date palm distribution in Iran under climate change using topography, physicochemical soil properties, soil taxonomy, land use and climate data. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 118. pp. 553-567.

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Abstract

This study set out to model potential date palm distribution under current and future climate scenarios using an emission scenario, in conjunction with two different global climate models (GCMs): CSIRO-Mk3.0 (CS), andMIROC-H (MR), and to refine results based on suitability under four nonclimatic parameters. Areas containing suitable physicochemical soil properties and suitable soil taxonomy, together with land slopes of less than 10° and suitable land uses for date palm (Phoenix dactylifera) were selected as appropriate refining tools to ensure the CLIMEX results were accurate and robust. Results showed that large regions of Iran are projected as likely to become climatically suitable for date palm cultivation based on the projected scenarios for the years 2030, 2050, 2070, and 2100. The study also showed CLIMEX outputs merit refinement by nonclimatic parameters and that the incremental introduction of each additional parameter decreased the disagreement between GCMs. Furthermore, the study indicated that the least amount of disagreement in terms of areas conducive to date palm cultivation resulted from CS and MR GCMs when the locations of suitable physicochemical soil properties and soil taxonomy were used as refinement tools.

Item ID: 63697
Item Type: Article (Research - C1)
ISSN: 1434-4483
Copyright Information: # Springer-Verlag Wien 2014
Date Deposited: 08 Sep 2020 02:58
FoR Codes: 09 ENGINEERING > 0909 Geomatic Engineering > 090903 Geospatial Information Systems @ 50%
07 AGRICULTURAL AND VETERINARY SCIENCES > 0701 Agriculture, Land and Farm Management > 070105 Agricultural Systems Analysis and Modelling @ 50%
SEO Codes: 96 ENVIRONMENT > 9603 Climate and Climate Change > 960303 Climate Change Models @ 100%
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