Evaluating the impact of future actions in minimizing vegetation loss from land conversion in the Brazilian Cerrado under climate change

Monteirou, LaraM., Brum, Fernanda Thiesen, Pressey, Robert L., Morellato, Leonor Patricia C., Soares-Filho, Britaldo, Lima-Ribeiro, Matheus S., and Loyola, Rafael (2020) Evaluating the impact of future actions in minimizing vegetation loss from land conversion in the Brazilian Cerrado under climate change. Biodiversity and Conservation, 29 (5). pp. 1701-1722.

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The global network of protected areas (PAs) is systematically biased towards remote and unproductive places. Consequently, the processes threatening biodiversity are not halted and conservation impact-defined as the beneficial environmental outcomes arising from protection relative to the counterfactual of no intervention-is smaller than previously thought. Yet, many conservation plans still target species' representation, which can fail to lead to impact by not considering the threats they face, such as land conversion and climate change. Here we aimed to identify spatial conservation priorities that minimize the risk of land conversion, while retaining sites with high value for threatened plants at risk from climate change in the Brazilian Cerrado. We compared a method of sequential implementation of conservation actions to a static strategy applied at one time-step. For both schedules of conservation actions, we applied two methods for setting priorities: (i) minimizing expected habitat conversion and prioritizing valuable sites for threatened plants (therefore maximizing conservation impact), and (ii) prioritizing sites based only on their value for threatened plants, regardless of their vulnerability to land conversion (therefore maximizing representation). We found that scenarios aimed at maximizing conservation impact reduced total vegetation loss, while still covering large proportions of species' ranges inside PAs and priority sites. Given that planning to avoid vegetation loss provided these benefits, vegetation information could represent a reliable surrogate for overall biodiversity. Besides allowing for the achievement of two distinct goals (representation and impact), the impact strategies also present great potential for implementation, especially under current conservation policies.

Item ID: 62702
Item Type: Article (Research - C1)
ISSN: 1572-9710
Keywords: Dynamic site selection, Impact evaluation, Land conversion, Protected areas, Spatial Conservation Prioritization, Threatened plants
Copyright Information: Copyright © 2018, Springer Nature B.V.
Funders: Coordination for the Improvement of Higher Education Personnel (CAPES), National Council for Scientific and Technological Development (CNPq), O Boticário Group Foundation for Nature Protection (OBGFNP), Centro Nacional de Conservação da Flora (CNCFlora), Australian Research Council (ARC), São Paulo Research Foundation (FAPESP), Financiadora de Estudos e Projetos (FINEP), INCT in Ecology, Evolution and Biodiversity Conservation
Projects and Grants: CAPES Master Scholarship, CNPq Grant 308532/2014-7, OBGFNP Grant PROG_0008_2013, CNCFlora Grant 065/2016, CNPq Grant 152172/2016-5, CNPq Grant 381106/2017-9, FAPESP Grant 2010/52113-5 a, FAPESP Grant 2013/50155-0, FAPESP Microsoft Research Virtual Institute, CNPq Research Productivity Fellowship, CNPq Grant 437167/2016-0, FINEP Grant 01.13.0353.00, INCT Grant 465610/2014-5
Date Deposited: 08 Apr 2020 07:35
FoR Codes: 31 BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES > 3104 Evolutionary biology > 310405 Evolutionary ecology @ 100%
SEO Codes: 19 ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY, CLIMATE CHANGE AND NATURAL HAZARDS > 1901 Adaptation to climate change > 190102 Ecosystem adaptation to climate change @ 100%
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