Impacts of Zika emergence in Latin America on endemic dengue transmission

Borchering, Rebecca K., Huang, Angkana T., Mier-y-Teran-Romero, Luis, Rojas, Diana P., Rodriguez-Barraquer, Isabel, Katzelnick, Leah C., Martinez, Silvio D., King, Gregory D., Cinkovich, Stephanie C., Lessler, Justin, and Cummings, Derek A.T. (2019) Impacts of Zika emergence in Latin America on endemic dengue transmission. Nature Communications, 10. 5730.

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Abstract

In 2015 and 2016, Zika virus (ZIKV) swept through dengue virus (DENV) endemic areas of Latin America. These viruses are of the same family, share a vector and may interact competitively or synergistically through human immune responses. We examine dengue incidence from Brazil and Colombia before, during, and after the Zika epidemic. We find evidence that dengue incidence was atypically low in 2017 in both countries. We investigate whether subnational Zika incidence is associated with changes in dengue incidence and find mixed results. Using simulations with multiple assumptions of interactions between DENV and ZIKV, we find cross-protection suppresses incidence of dengue following Zika outbreaks and low periods of dengue incidence are followed by resurgence. Our simulations suggest correlations in DENV and ZIKV reproduction numbers could complicate associations between ZIKV incidence and post-ZIKV DENV incidence and that periods of low dengue incidence are followed by large increases in dengue incidence.

Item ID: 61378
Item Type: Article (Research - C1)
ISSN: 2041-1723
Keywords: Dengue, Zika, epidemiology, Latin America, surveillance, modeling, simulations, Brazil, Colombia
Copyright Information: © The Author(s) 2019
Funders: National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases
Projects and Grants: Grant R01AI102939
Date Deposited: 25 Feb 2020 23:47
FoR Codes: 11 MEDICAL AND HEALTH SCIENCES > 1117 Public Health and Health Services > 111706 Epidemiology @ 60%
11 MEDICAL AND HEALTH SCIENCES > 1103 Clinical Sciences > 110309 Infectious Diseases @ 20%
01 MATHEMATICAL SCIENCES > 0104 Statistics > 010402 Biostatistics @ 20%
SEO Codes: 92 HEALTH > 9204 Public Health (excl. Specific Population Health) > 920404 Disease Distribution and Transmission (incl. Surveillance and Response) @ 80%
92 HEALTH > 9201 Clinical Health (Organs, Diseases and Abnormal Conditions) > 920109 Infectious Diseases @ 20%
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