Escaping the perfect storm of simultaneous climate change impacts on agriculture and marine fisheries

Thiault, Lauric, Mora, Camilo, Cinner, Joshua E., Cheung, William W.L., Graham, Nicholas A.J., Januchowski-Hartley, Fraser A., Mouillot, David, Sumaila, U. Rashid, and Claudet, Joachim (2019) Escaping the perfect storm of simultaneous climate change impacts on agriculture and marine fisheries. Science Advances, 5 (11). eaaw9976.

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Abstract

Climate change can alter conditions that sustain food production and availability, with cascading consequences for food security and global economies. Here, we evaluate the vulnerability of societies to the simultaneous impacts of climate change on agriculture and marine fisheries at a global scale. Under a "business-as-usual" emission scenario, similar to 90% of the world's population-most of whom live in the most sensitive and least developed countries-are projected to be exposed to losses of food production in both sectors, while less than 3% would live in regions experiencing simultaneous productivity gains by 2100. Under a strong mitigation scenario comparable to achieving the Paris Agreement, most countries-including the most vulnerable and many of the largest CO2 producers-would experience concomitant net gains in agriculture and fisheries production. Reducing societies' vulnerability to future climate impacts requires prompt mitigation actions led by major CO2 emitters coupled with strategic adaptation within and across sectors.

Item ID: 61225
Item Type: Article (Research - C1)
ISSN: 2375-2548
Copyright Information: © 2019 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. Distributed under a Creative Commons Attribution NonCommercial License 4.0 (CC BY-NC).
Funders: Agence Nationale de la Recherche (ANR), Australian Research Council (ARC), Pew Charitable Trust, Paul M Angell Family Foundation, WorldFish FISH CRP
Projects and Grants: ANR-14-CE03-0001-01, ARC CE140100020 and FT160100047
Date Deposited: 18 Dec 2019 07:33
FoR Codes: 16 STUDIES IN HUMAN SOCIETY > 1604 Human Geography > 160499 Human Geography not elsewhere classified @ 100%
SEO Codes: 96 ENVIRONMENT > 9603 Climate and Climate Change > 960301 Climate Change Adaptation Measures @ 20%
96 ENVIRONMENT > 9603 Climate and Climate Change > 960311 Social Impacts of Climate Change and Variability @ 80%
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