Crop niche modeling projects major shifts in common bean growing areas

Ramirez-Cabral, Nadiezhda Yakovleva Zitz, Kumar, Lalit, and Taylor, Subhashni (2016) Crop niche modeling projects major shifts in common bean growing areas. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 218-219. pp. 102-113.

[img] PDF (Published Version) - Published Version
Restricted to Repository staff only

View at Publisher Website: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2015...
 
32
1


Abstract

Crops experience different climate stresses during development. The magnitude of damage will depend on the phenological stage of the crop and the stress duration. Climate change could intensify some or all of these stresses, thus negatively impacting agriculture. An assessment of staple crop productivity, quality and climatically suitable areas under climate change conditions is necessary to undertake any global initiatives to tackle food security issues. The common bean (Phaseolus vulgaris L.) is a staple crop and the main source of proteins and nutrients in Africa and Latin America. The purpose of this study is to develop a process-oriented niche model to assess the impacts of climate change on the current and future potential distribution of common bean and to use this model to investigate the changes in heat, cold, dry and wet stresses under climate change. We used A2 and A1B emission scenarios and two different global climate models, CSIRO-Mk3.0 and MIROC-H, for the years 2050 and 2100. Our results indicate future climate conditions are more favorable for common bean cultivation in the Northern Hemisphere, but are less favorable in the Southern Hemisphere. Heat and dry stresses are the main factors limiting and reducing common bean distribution under current and future projected conditions. Africa and Latin America are projected to decrease with respect to suitability for common bean cultivation. The model projections indicate that a shift in the common bean productive areas is highly likely with a loss of suitability of the current common bean cultivation areas and an increase in cold regions such as Canada, the Nordic countries and Russia. The results indicate the likelihood of changes in climatic suitability and the distribution of common bean at a global scale under a future climate, which will affect regions where this legume is a staple crop and an important source of household income. Regions in the Northern Hemisphere could take advantage of the increase in suitability by increasing the production and exportation of this grain.

Item ID: 61182
Item Type: Article (Research - C1)
ISSN: 1873-2240
Keywords: Phaseolus vulgaris L.; Climate Change; CLIMEX; Abiotic stresses; Agriculture suitability
Related URLs:
Copyright Information: © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Funders: National Research Institute for Forestry, Agriculture and Livestock (INIFAP), University of New England (UNE)
Projects and Grants: Armidale, Australia, and AusAID Scholarships
Date Deposited: 17 Dec 2019 03:25
FoR Codes: 07 AGRICULTURAL AND VETERINARY SCIENCES > 0701 Agriculture, Land and Farm Management > 070104 Agricultural Spatial Analysis and Modelling @ 100%
SEO Codes: 96 ENVIRONMENT > 9603 Climate and Climate Change > 960303 Climate Change Models @ 100%
Downloads: Total: 1
More Statistics

Actions (Repository Staff Only)

Item Control Page Item Control Page