Will climate change impact the potential distribution of a native vine (Merremia peltata) which is behaving invasively in the pacific region?

Taylor, Subhashni, and Kumar, Lalit (2016) Will climate change impact the potential distribution of a native vine (Merremia peltata) which is behaving invasively in the pacific region? Ecology and Evolution, 6 (3). pp. 742-754.

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Merremia peltata is a species with uncertain status in the island nations of the Pacific region. It has been designated introduced and invasive in some countries whereas it is considered native in others. Recent increase in its abundance across some island landscapes have led to calls for its designation as an invasive species of environmental concern with biological control being suggested as a control strategy. Climate change will add to the complications of managing this species since changes in climate will influence its range limits. In this study, we develop a process-oriented niche model of M. peltata using CLIMEX to investigate the impacts of climate change on its potential distribution. Information on the climatic requirements of M. peltata and its current geographic distribution were used to calibrate the model. The results indicate that under current climate, 273,132 km2 of the land area in the region is climatically unsuitable or marginal for M. peltata whereas 664,524 km2 is suitable to highly suitable. Under current climate, areas of climatic suitability for M. peltata were identified on the archipelagos of Fiji, Papua New Guinea, Solomon Islands and Vanuatu. By the end of the century, some archipelagos like Fiji, Hawaii, New Caledonia and Vanuatu will probably become more suitable while PNG and Solomon Islands become less suitable for M. peltata. The results can be used to inform biosecurity planning, management and conservation strategies on islands.

Item ID: 61181
Item Type: Article (Research - C1)
ISSN: 2045-7758
Keywords: biological invasion, climate change; CLIMEX; Merremia peltata, niche modelling, Pacific region
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Copyright Information: ª2016 The Authors.Ecology and Evolutionpublished by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use,distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
Date Deposited: 13 Dec 2019 00:29
FoR Codes: 41 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES > 4102 Ecological applications > 410202 Biosecurity science and invasive species ecology @ 20%
41 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES > 4104 Environmental management > 410406 Natural resource management @ 40%
41 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES > 4104 Environmental management > 410404 Environmental management @ 40%
SEO Codes: 96 ENVIRONMENT > 9603 Climate and Climate Change > 960309 Effects of Climate Change and Variability on the South Pacific (excl. Australia and New Zealand) (excl. Social Impacts) @ 100%
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