Delay effect and burden of weather related tuberculosis cases in Rajshahi province, Bangladesh, 2007–2012

Kuddus, Md Abdul, McBryde, Emma S., and Adegboye, Oyelola A. (2019) Delay effect and burden of weather related tuberculosis cases in Rajshahi province, Bangladesh, 2007–2012. Scientific Reports, 9. 12720.

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Tuberculosis (TB) is a potentially fatal infectious disease that continues to be a public health problem in Bangladesh. Each year in Bangladesh an estimated 70,000 people die of TB and 300,000 new cases are projected. It is important to understand the association between TB incidence and weather factors in Bangladesh in order to develop proper intervention programs. In this study, we examine the delayed effect of weather variables on TB occurrence and estimate the burden of the disease that can be attributed to weather factors. We used generalized linear Poisson regression models to investigate the association between weather factors and TB cases reported to the Bangladesh National TB control program between 2007 and 2012 in three known endemic districts of North-East Bangladesh. The associated risk of TB in the three districts increases with prolonged exposure to temperature and rainfall, and persisted at lag periods beyond 6 quarters. The association between humidity and TB is strong and immediate at low humidity, but the risk decreases with increasing lag. Using the optimum weather values corresponding to the lowest risk of infection, the risk of TB is highest at low temperature, low humidity and low rainfall. Measures of the risk attributable to weather variables revealed that weather-TB cases attributed to humidity is higher than that of temperature and rainfall in each of the three districts. Our results highlight the high linearity of temporal lagged effects and magnitudes of the burden attributable to temperature, humidity, and rainfall on TB endemics. The results can hopefully advise the Bangladesh National TB control program and act as a practical reference for the early warning of TB cases.

Item ID: 60911
Item Type: Article (Research - C1)
ISSN: 2045-2322
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Copyright Information: Open Access. This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Cre-ative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not per-mitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit
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A version of this publication was included as Chapter 3 of the following PhD thesis: Kuddus, Md Abdul (2021) Using mathematical models to develop tuberculosis control strategies in Bangladesh. PhD thesis, James Cook University, which is available Open Access in ResearchOnline@JCU. Please see the Related URLs for access.

Funders: James Cook University (JCU)
Projects and Grants: JCU College of Medicine and Dentistry 8665631
Date Deposited: 26 Feb 2020 03:34
FoR Codes: 32 BIOMEDICAL AND CLINICAL SCIENCES > 3206 Medical biotechnology > 320602 Medical biotechnology diagnostics (incl. biosensors) @ 30%
41 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES > 4104 Environmental management > 410402 Environmental assessment and monitoring @ 40%
32 BIOMEDICAL AND CLINICAL SCIENCES > 3202 Clinical sciences > 320211 Infectious diseases @ 30%
SEO Codes: 92 HEALTH > 9201 Clinical Health (Organs, Diseases and Abnormal Conditions) > 920109 Infectious Diseases @ 50%
96 ENVIRONMENT > 9602 Atmosphere and Weather > 960203 Weather @ 50%
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