Epidemiological analysis of association between lagged meteorological variables and pneumonia in wet-dry tropical North Australia, 2006–2016

Adegboye, Oyelola A., McBryde, Emma S., and Eisen, Damon P. (2019) Epidemiological analysis of association between lagged meteorological variables and pneumonia in wet-dry tropical North Australia, 2006–2016. Journal of Exposure Science & Environmental Epidemiology. (In Press)

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Abstract

Pneumonia accounts for 1.5% of all overnight hospital admission in Australia. We investigated the nonlinear and delay effect of weather (temperature and rainfall) on pneumonia. This study was based on a large cohort of inpatients that were hospitalized due to pneumonia between 2006 and 2016. Cases were identified using the International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems, Tenth Revision, Australian Modification (ICD10-AM) codes J10.0*–J18.0*. A time-varying distributed lag nonlinear model was used to estimate the burden of the disease attributable to varying weather-lag pneumonia relationships and identify vulnerable groups. The relative risk (presented as logRR) associated with temperature was immediate and highest in late winter at the lowest temperature of 16 °C (logRR = 1.13, 95% confidence intervals (CI): 0.59, 1.66). The cumulative effect over the lag range 0–8 weeks revealed two peaks for low (12 mm, logRR = 0.73, 95% CI: 0.32, 1.13) and moderately high rainfall (51 mm) with logRR of 1.15 (95% CI: 0.10, 2.20). A substantial number, 22.50% (95% empirical CI: 1.83, 34.68), of pneumonia cases were attributable to temperature (mostly due to moderate low temperatures). Females and indigenous (Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander) patients were particularly vulnerable to the impact of temperature-related pneumonia. In this study, we highlighted the delayed effects and magnitude of burden of pneumonia that is associated with low temperature and rainfall. The findings in this study can inform a better understanding of the health implications and burden associated with pneumonia to support discussion-making in healthcare and establish a strategy for prevention and control of the disease among vulnerable groups.

Item ID: 60910
Item Type: Article (Research - C1)
ISSN: 1559-064X
Keywords: Wet-dry tropics; pneumonia; lagged variables; temperature; rainfall
Copyright Information: © The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature America, Inc. 2019
Funders: Townsville Hospital and Health Service Private Practice Research and Education Trust Fund
Date Deposited: 21 Nov 2019 06:16
FoR Codes: 10 TECHNOLOGY > 1004 Medical Biotechnology > 100402 Medical Biotechnology Diagnostics (incl Biosensors) @ 30%
05 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES > 0502 Environmental Science and Management > 050204 Environmental Impact Assessment @ 40%
11 MEDICAL AND HEALTH SCIENCES > 1103 Clinical Sciences > 110309 Infectious Diseases @ 30%
SEO Codes: 96 ENVIRONMENT > 9602 Atmosphere and Weather > 960203 Weather @ 50%
92 HEALTH > 9201 Clinical Health (Organs, Diseases and Abnormal Conditions) > 920109 Infectious Diseases @ 50%
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