Projected impact of dengue vaccination in Yucatán, Mexico

Hladish, Thomas J., Pearson, Carl A.B., Chao, Dennis L., Rojas, Diana Patricia, Recchia, Gabriel L., Gómez-Dantés, Héctor, Halloran, M. Elizabeth, Pulliam, Juliet R.C., and Longini, Ira M. (2016) Projected impact of dengue vaccination in Yucatán, Mexico. PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, 10 (5). e0004661.

[img]
Preview
PDF (Published Version) - Published Version
Available under License Creative Commons Attribution.

Download (4MB) | Preview
View at Publisher Website: https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.000...
 
22
103


Abstract

Dengue vaccines will soon provide a new tool for reducing dengue disease, but the effectiveness of widespread vaccination campaigns has not yet been determined. We developed an agent-based dengue model representing movement of and transmission dynamics among people and mosquitoes in Yucatán, Mexico, and simulated various vaccine scenarios to evaluate effectiveness under those conditions. This model includes detailed spatial representation of the Yucatán population, including the location and movement of 1.8 million people between 375,000 households and 100,000 workplaces and schools. Where possible, we designed the model to use data sources with international coverage, to simplify re-parameterization for other regions. The simulation and analysis integrate 35 years of mild and severe case data (including dengue serotype when available), results of a seroprevalence survey, satellite imagery, and climatological, census, and economic data. To fit model parameters that are not directly informed by available data, such as disease reporting rates and dengue transmission parameters, we developed a parameter estimation toolkit called AbcSmc, which we have made publicly available. After fitting the simulation model to dengue case data, we forecasted transmission and assessed the relative effectiveness of several vaccination strategies over a 20 year period. Vaccine efficacy is based on phase III trial results for the Sanofi-Pasteur vaccine, Dengvaxia. We consider routine vaccination of 2, 9, or 16 year-olds, with and without a one-time catch-up campaign to age 30. Because the durability of Dengvaxia is not yet established, we consider hypothetical vaccines that confer either durable or waning immunity, and we evaluate the use of booster doses to counter waning. We find that plausible vaccination scenarios with a durable vaccine reduce annual dengue incidence by as much as 80% within five years. However, if vaccine efficacy wanes after administration, we find that there can be years with larger epidemics than would occur without any vaccination, and that vaccine booster doses are necessary to prevent this outcome.

Item ID: 60732
Item Type: Article (Research - C1)
ISSN: 1935-2735
Keywords: Dengue, impact vaccination, modeling, epidemiology
Copyright Information: © 2016 Hladish et al. This is an openaccess article distributed under the terms of theCreative Commons Attribution License, which permitsunrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in anymedium, provided the original author and source arecredited.
Funders: Dengue Vaccine Initiative Grant, National Institutes of Health (NIH), National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), Models of Infectious Disease Agent Study, Sanofi Pasteur Laboratories, Fogarty International Center, Department of Homeland Security, Fullbright Program
Projects and Grants: NIH/NIAID R37 AI32042, NIH/NIAID GM111274
Date Deposited: 28 Oct 2019 03:03
FoR Codes: 11 MEDICAL AND HEALTH SCIENCES > 1117 Public Health and Health Services > 111706 Epidemiology @ 25%
11 MEDICAL AND HEALTH SCIENCES > 1103 Clinical Sciences > 110309 Infectious Diseases @ 25%
01 MATHEMATICAL SCIENCES > 0104 Statistics > 010406 Stochastic Analysis and Modelling @ 50%
SEO Codes: 92 HEALTH > 9204 Public Health (excl. Specific Population Health) > 920404 Disease Distribution and Transmission (incl. Surveillance and Response) @ 100%
Downloads: Total: 103
Last 12 Months: 23
More Statistics

Actions (Repository Staff Only)

Item Control Page Item Control Page