Using multiple lines of evidence to assess the risk of ecosystem collapse

Bland, Lucie M., Regan, Tracey J., Dinh, Minh Ngoc, Ferrari, Renata, Keith, David A., Lester, Rebecca, Mouillot, David, Murray, Nicholas, Nguyen, Hoang Anh, and Nicholson, Emily (2017) Using multiple lines of evidence to assess the risk of ecosystem collapse. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London Series B, Biological Sciences, 284 (1863). 20170660.

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Abstract

Effective ecosystem risk assessment relies on a conceptual understanding of ecosystem dynamics and the synthesis of multiple lines of evidence. Risk assessment protocols and ecosystem models integrate limited observational data with threat scenarios, making them valuable tools for monitoring ecosystem status and diagnosing key mechanisms of decline to be addressed by management. We applied the IUCN Red List of Ecosystems criteria to quantify the risk of collapse of the Meso-American Reef, a unique ecosystem containing the second longest barrier reef in the world. We collated a wide array of empirical data (field and remotely sensed), and used a stochastic ecosystem model to backcast past ecosystem dynamics, as well as forecast future ecosystem dynamics under 11 scenarios of threat. The ecosystem is at high risk from mass bleaching in the coming decades, with compounding effects of ocean acidification, hurricanes, pollution and fishing. The overall status of the ecosystem is Critically Endangered (plausibly Vulnerable to Critically Endangered), with notable differences among Red List criteria and data types in detecting the most severe symptoms of risk. Our case study provides a template for assessing risks to coral reefs and for further application of ecosystem models in risk assessment.

Item ID: 60199
Item Type: Article (Research - C1)
ISSN: 0962-8452
Keywords: ecosystem collapse; coral reefs; stochastic model; indicators; IUCN; Red List of Ecosystems; Meso-American Reef scenarios
Copyright Information: © 2017 The Authors. Published by the Royal Society under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License.
Funders: Australian Research Council (ARC), Veski Inspiring Women Fellowship
Projects and Grants: ARC LP 130100435
Research Data: https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.c.3865441.v1, https://github.com/LucieBland/coral-reefs
Date Deposited: 02 Oct 2019 02:44
FoR Codes: 05 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES > 0501 Ecological Applications > 050102 Ecosystem Function @ 60%
05 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES > 0502 Environmental Science and Management > 050202 Conservation and Biodiversity @ 20%
06 BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES > 0602 Ecology > 060202 Community Ecology (excl Invasive Species Ecology) @ 20%
SEO Codes: 96 ENVIRONMENT > 9605 Ecosystem Assessment and Management > 960501 Ecosystem Assessment and Management at Regional or Larger Scales @ 60%
96 ENVIRONMENT > 9605 Ecosystem Assessment and Management > 960507 Ecosystem Assessment and Management of Marine Environments @ 40%
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