Mathematical analysis of a Wolbachia invasive model with imperfect maternal transmission and loss of Wolbachia infection

Adekunle, Adeshina I., Meehan, Michael T., and McBryde, Emma S. (2019) Mathematical analysis of a Wolbachia invasive model with imperfect maternal transmission and loss of Wolbachia infection. Infectious Disease Modelling, 4. pp. 265-285. (Unpublished)

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Abstract

Arboviral infections, especially dengue, continue to cause significant health burden in their endemic regions. One of the strategies to tackle these infections is to replace the main vector agent, Ae. aegypti, with the ones incapable of transmitting the virus. Wolbachia, an intracellular bacterium, has shown promise in achieving this goal. However, key factors such as imperfect maternal transmission, loss of Wolbachia infection, reduced reproductive capacity and shortened life-span affect the dynamics of Wolbachia in different forms in the Ae. aegypti population. In this study, we developed a Wolbachia transmission dynamic model adjusting for imperfect maternal transmission and loss of Wolbachia infection. The invasive reproductive number that determines the likelihood of replacement of the Wolbachia-uninfected (WU) population is derived and with it, we established the local and global stability of the equilibrium points. This analysis clearly shows that cytoplasmic incompatibility (CI) does not guarantee establishment of the Wolbachia-infected (WI) mosquitoes as imperfect maternal transmission and loss of Wolbachia infection could outweigh the gains from CI. Optimal release programs depending on the level of imperfect maternal transmission and loss of Wolbachia infection are shown. Hence, it is left to decision makers to either aim for replacement or co-existence of both populations.

Item ID: 58728
Item Type: Article (Research - C1)
ISSN: 2468-0427
Keywords: Imperfect maternal transmission; Wolbachia infection; Local stability; Global stability
Copyright Information: © 2019 The Authors. Production and hosting by Elsevier B.V. on behalf of KeAi Communications Co., Ltd. This is an open access article under theCC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/)
Date Deposited: 16 Jun 2020 04:09
FoR Codes: 01 MATHEMATICAL SCIENCES > 0102 Applied Mathematics > 010202 Biological Mathematics @ 50%
01 MATHEMATICAL SCIENCES > 0103 Numerical and Computational Mathematics > 010302 Numerical Solution of Differential and Integral Equations @ 25%
11 MEDICAL AND HEALTH SCIENCES > 1117 Public Health and Health Services > 111706 Epidemiology @ 25%
SEO Codes: 92 HEALTH > 9204 Public Health (excl. Specific Population Health) > 920404 Disease Distribution and Transmission (incl. Surveillance and Response) @ 30%
96 ENVIRONMENT > 9604 Control of Pests, Diseases and Exotic Species > 960405 Control of Pests, Diseases and Exotic Species at Regional or Larger Scales @ 70%
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