Using population projections to identify aspects of future tourism demand

Glover, Petra, and Prideaux, Bruce (2008) Using population projections to identify aspects of future tourism demand. Advances in Hospitality and Leisure, 4. pp. 185-209.

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Identifying future tourism demand is a critical aspect for tourism decision-makers to ensure the long-term success of products, services and destinations. This paper discusses how population change, an important driver of tourism demand, may impact future demand patterns. It discusses potential impacts of projected demographic change, especially those resulting from the related aspects of population ageing and changing family structures. A case study amongst Baby Boomers and Generation Y on the Gold Coast, Australia, illustrates how demand patterns may develop over the next 15 years. The study incorporates different population scenarios as projected by the Australian Bureau of Statistics and shows a great diversity of demand amongst both generations. It is suggested that scenarios be used to analyse potential impacts of other determinants to obtain a better understanding of future tourism demand, thus expanding the scope of traditional forecasting methods.

Item ID: 5702
Item Type: Article (Research - C1)
ISSN: 1745-3542
Keywords: scenarios; tourism demand; baby boomers
Date Deposited: 21 Dec 2009 23:59
FoR Codes: 15 COMMERCE, MANAGEMENT, TOURISM AND SERVICES > 1506 Tourism > 150606 Tourist Behaviour and Visitor Experience @ 100%
SEO Codes: 90 COMMERCIAL SERVICES AND TOURISM > 9003 Tourism > 900399 Tourism not elsewhere classified @ 100%
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