Are emission reduction policies effective under climate change conditions? A backcasting and exploratory scenario approach using the LEAP-OSeMOSYS Model

Emodi, Nnaemeka Vincent, Chaiechi, Taha, and Beg, A.B.M. Rabiul Alam (2019) Are emission reduction policies effective under climate change conditions? A backcasting and exploratory scenario approach using the LEAP-OSeMOSYS Model. Applied Energy, 236. pp. 1183-1217.

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The power sector exercises huge impacts on global warming through emitted greenhouse gases [GHGs], with Australia not an exception. Over the years, the effectiveness of policies that have emerged to curtail GHGs emissions from electricity generation seem barely investigated. To address this gap, the study identifies potential energy reduction policies and climate change scenarios for the Australian power sector by applying approaches from combined backcasting and exploratory scenario. The Long-range Energy Alternative Planning (LEAP) system and its integrated Open Source Energy Modelling System (OSeMOSYS) was used for optimisation analysis. Results identified cost optimisation scenarios as a least-cost generation pathway with less climate change impact, followed by renewable energy target and energy productivity scenarios. Economic analysis shows that emission reduction policy will result in added cost to the economy, while carbon tax policies will yield economic benefit in installation cost, resource savings and environmental externalities reductions by 2050. The environmental analysis reveals that emission reduction policy will increase cumulative emissions, while future temperatures may double the emissions from the base case scenario. We conclude that future low-carbon pathways lie in clean energy substitutions and innovative energy policies, while global warming raises the need to switch to clean energy technologies early.

Item ID: 56965
Item Type: Article (Research - C1)
ISSN: 1872-9118
Keywords: LEAP, OSeMOSYS, Australia, climate change, emission reduction policy, optimisation
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Copyright Information: © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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A version of this publication was included as Chapter 5 of the following PhD thesis: Emodi, Nnaemeka Vincent (2019) Addressing climate change impact on the energy system: a technoeconomic and environmental approach to decarbonisation. PhD thesis, James Cook University, which is available Open Access in ResearchOnline@JCU. Please see the Related URLs for access.

Date Deposited: 28 Jan 2019 22:35
FoR Codes: 38 ECONOMICS > 3801 Applied economics > 380105 Environment and resource economics @ 50%
41 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES > 4104 Environmental management > 410404 Environmental management @ 25%
41 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES > 4104 Environmental management > 410402 Environmental assessment and monitoring @ 25%
SEO Codes: 85 ENERGY > 8505 Renewable Energy > 850506 Solar-Thermal Energy @ 20%
85 ENERGY > 8598 Environmentally Sustainable Energy Activities > 859803 Management of Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Energy Activities (excl. Electricity Generation) @ 50%
85 ENERGY > 8507 Energy Conservation and Efficiency > 850799 Energy Conservation and Efficiency not elsewhere classified @ 30%
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