Kuhnert, P.M., Pagendam, D.E., Bartley, R., Gladish, D.W., Lewis, S.E., and Bainbridge, Z.T. (2018) Making management decisions in the face of uncertainty: a case study using the Burdekin catchment in the Great Barrier Reef. Marine and Freshwater Research, 69 (8). pp. 1187-1200.

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Abstract

Modelling and monitoring pollutants entering into the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) lagoon remain important priorities for the Australian and Queensland governments. Uncertainty analysis of pollutant load delivery to the GBR would: (1) inform decision makers on their ability to meet environmental targets; (2) identify whether additional measurements are required to make confident decisions; and (3) determine whether investments into remediation activities are actually making a difference to water quality and the health of the GBR. Using a case study from the Upper Burdekin catchment where sediment concentrations are the focus, herein we explore and demonstrate different ways of communicating uncertainty to a decision maker. In particular, we show how exceedance probabilities can identify hot spots for future monitoring or remediation activities and how they can be used to inform target setting activities. We provide recommendations for water quality specialists that allow them to make more informed and scientifically defensible decisions that consider uncertainty in both the monitoring and modelling data, as well as allowing the calculation of exceedances from a threshold.

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