Fragility and climate impact assessment of contemporary housing roof sheeting failure due to extreme wind

Stewart, Mark G., Ginger, John D., Henderson, David J., and Ryan, Paraic C. (2018) Fragility and climate impact assessment of contemporary housing roof sheeting failure due to extreme wind. Engineering Structures, 171. pp. 464-475.

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The paper describes a risk analysis of the economic impact of damage to metal roofing of a typical contemporary (new) Australian house subject to extreme wind loading. The failure modes considered are roof cladding and batten-to-truss connection failures, with the effect of defective construction also considered. Monte-Carlo simulation and structural reliability methods are used to stochastically model spatially varying pressure coefficients, roof component failure, and load re-distribution across the roof. This spatial reliability analysis enables fragility curves to be developed that relate likelihood and extent of roof cover loss to gust wind speed. The annual economic risk is up to 0.3% of house replacement value. A typical house with construction defects increases economic risk more than sixfold when compared to the defect-free house. There is a 10% chance that a changing climate will increase expected losses for houses in Brisbane and Melbourne by 6–18% over the next 50 years.

Item ID: 55903
Item Type: Article (Research - C1)
ISSN: 1873-7323
Keywords: fragility; housing; reliability; damage; wind load; climate change
Funders: Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO)
Projects and Grants: CSIRO Flagship Cluster Fund through the project Climate adaption Engineering for Extreme Events
Date Deposited: 23 Oct 2018 04:23
FoR Codes: 40 ENGINEERING > 4005 Civil engineering > 400510 Structural engineering @ 100%
SEO Codes: 87 CONSTRUCTION > 8702 Construction Design > 870204 Residential Construction Design @ 80%
87 CONSTRUCTION > 8703 Construction Materials Performance and Processes > 870302 Metals (e.g. Composites, Coatings, Bonding) @ 20%
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