The application of machine learning for evaluating anthropogenic versus natural climate change

Abbot, John, and Marohasy, Jennifer (2017) The application of machine learning for evaluating anthropogenic versus natural climate change. GeoResJ, 14. pp. 36-46.

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View at Publisher Website: http://doi.org/10.1016/j.grj.2017.08.001
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Abstract

Time-series profiles derived from temperature proxies such as tree rings can provide information about past climate. Signal analysis was undertaken of six such datasets, and the resulting component sine waves used as input to an artificial neural network (ANN), a form of machine learning. By optimizing spectral features of the component sine waves, such as periodicity, amplitude and phase, the original temperature profiles were approximately simulated for the late Holocene period to 1830 CE. The ANN models were then used to generate projections of temperatures through the 20th century. The largest deviation between the ANN projections and measured temperatures for six geographically distinct regions was approximately 0.2 °C, and from this an Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS) of approximately 0.6 °C was estimated. This is considerably less than estimates from the General Circulation Models (GCMs) used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and similar to estimates from spectroscopic methods.

Item ID: 54163
Item Type: Article (Research - C1)
ISSN: 2214-2428
Funders: B. Macfie Family Foundation
Date Deposited: 19 Jun 2018 03:37
FoR Codes: 04 EARTH SCIENCES > 0401 Atmospheric Sciences > 040104 Climate Change Processes @ 100%
SEO Codes: 96 ENVIRONMENT > 9603 Climate and Climate Change > 960303 Climate Change Models @ 100%
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