Epidemiological analysis of spatially misaligned data: a case of highly pathogenic avian influenza virus outbreak in Nigeria

Adegboye, O.A., and Kotze, D. (2013) Epidemiological analysis of spatially misaligned data: a case of highly pathogenic avian influenza virus outbreak in Nigeria. Epidemiology and Infection, 142 (5). pp. 940-949.

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This research is focused on the epidemiological analysis of the transmission of the highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 virus outbreak in Nigeria. The data included 145 outbreaks together with the locations of the infected farms and the date of confirmation of infection. In order to investigate the environmental conditions that favoured the transmission and spread of the virus, weather stations were realigned with the locations of the infected farms. The spatial Kolmogorov–Smirnov test for complete spatial randomness rejects the null hypothesis of constant intensity (P < 0·0001). Preliminary exploratory analysis showed an increase in the incidence of H5N1 virus at farms located at high altitude. Results from the Poisson log-linear conditional intensity function identified temperature (−0·9601) and wind speed (0·6239) as the ecological factors that influence the intensity of transmission of the H5N1 virus. The model also includes distance from the first outbreak (−0·9175) with an Akaike's Information Criterion of −103·87. Our analysis using a point process model showed that geographical heterogeneity, seasonal effects, temperature, wind as well as proximity to the first outbreak are very important components of spread and transmission of HPAI H5N1.

Item ID: 53805
Item Type: Article (Research - C1)
ISSN: 1469-4409
Keywords: ecological factors, habitat suitability map, highly pathogenic avian influenza, H5N1, Nigeria, spatial conditional intensity
Date Deposited: 28 Aug 2018 23:32
FoR Codes: 01 MATHEMATICAL SCIENCES > 0104 Statistics > 010402 Biostatistics @ 40%
06 BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES > 0605 Microbiology > 060502 Infectious Agents @ 30%
07 AGRICULTURAL AND VETERINARY SCIENCES > 0707 Veterinary Sciences > 070704 Veterinary Epidemiology @ 30%
SEO Codes: 83 ANIMAL PRODUCTION AND ANIMAL PRIMARY PRODUCTS > 8303 Livestock Raising > 830309 Poultry @ 50%
92 HEALTH > 9201 Clinical Health (Organs, Diseases and Abnormal Conditions) > 920109 Infectious Diseases @ 50%
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