Social and demographic factors associated with morbidities in young children in Egypt: a Bayesian geo-additive semi-parametric multinomial model

Khatab, Khaled, Adegboye, Oyelola, and Mohammed, Taofeeq Ibn (2016) Social and demographic factors associated with morbidities in young children in Egypt: a Bayesian geo-additive semi-parametric multinomial model. PLoS ONE, 11 (7). e0159173.

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Background: Globally, the burden of mortality in children, especially in poor developing countries, is alarming and has precipitated concern and calls for concerted efforts in combating such health problems. Examples of diseases that contribute to this burden of mortality include diarrhoea, cough, fever, and the overlap between these illnesses, causing childhood morbidity and mortality.

Methods: To gain insight into these health issues, we employed the 2008 Demographic and Health Survey Data of Egypt, which recorded details from 10,872 children under five. This data focused on the demographic and socio-economic characteristics of household members. We applied a Bayesian multinomial model to assess the area-specific spatial effects and risk factors of co-morbidity of fever, diarrhoea and cough for children under the age of five.

Results: The results showed that children under 20 months of age were more likely to have the three diseases (OR: 6.8; 95 CI: 4.6–10.2) than children between 20 and 40 months (OR: 2.14; 95 CI: 1.38–3.3). In multivariate Bayesian geo-additive models, the children of mothers who were over 20 years of age were more likely to have only cough (OR: 1.2; 95 CI: 0.9–1.5) and only fever (OR: 1.2; 95 CI: 0.91–1.51) compared with their counterparts. Spatial results showed that the North-eastern region of Egypt has a higher incidence than most of other regions.

Conclusions This study showed geographic patterns of Egyptian governorates in the combined prevalence of morbidity among Egyptian children. It is obvious that the Nile Delta, Upper Egypt, and south-eastern Egypt have high rates of diseases and are more affected. Therefore, more attention is needed in these areas.

Item ID: 53780
Item Type: Article (Research - C1)
ISSN: 1932-6203
Copyright Information: © 2016 Khatab et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
Date Deposited: 14 Aug 2018 01:49
FoR Codes: 49 MATHEMATICAL SCIENCES > 4905 Statistics > 490502 Biostatistics @ 50%
42 HEALTH SCIENCES > 4204 Midwifery > 420402 Models of care and place of birth @ 25%
42 HEALTH SCIENCES > 4202 Epidemiology > 420205 Epidemiological modelling @ 25%
SEO Codes: 92 HEALTH > 9204 Public Health (excl. Specific Population Health) > 920404 Disease Distribution and Transmission (incl. Surveillance and Response) @ 50%
97 EXPANDING KNOWLEDGE > 970101 Expanding Knowledge in the Mathematical Sciences @ 50%
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