The impact of climate change on electricity demand in Australia

Emodi, Nnaemeka Vincent, Chaiechi, Taha, and Beg, Rabiul Alam (2018) The impact of climate change on electricity demand in Australia. Energy and Environment, 29 (7). pp. 1263-1297.

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This study estimates the short- and long-term impacts of climate change on electricity demand in Australia. We used an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model with monthly data from 1999 to 2014 for six Australian states and one territory. The results reveal significant variations in electricity demand. We then used long-term coefficients for climatic response to simulate future electricity demand using four scenarios based on the representative concentration pathways (RCPs) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Our results show a gradual increase in electricity consumption due to warmer temperatures with the possibility of peak demand in winter; however, demand tends to decrease in the middle of the twenty-first century across the RCPs, while the summer peak load increases by the end of the century. Finally, we simulated the impact of policy uncertainty through sensitivity analysis and confirmed the potential benefits of climate change adaptation and mitigation.

Item ID: 53673
Item Type: Article (Research - C1)
ISSN: 0958-305X
Keywords: climate change impact; electricity demand; Australia; ARDL model; simulation
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A version of this publication was included as Chapter 3 of the following PhD thesis: Emodi, Nnaemeka Vincent (2019) Addressing climate change impact on the energy system: a technoeconomic and environmental approach to decarbonisation. PhD thesis, James Cook University, which is available Open Access in ResearchOnline@JCU. Please see the Related URLs for access.

Date Deposited: 03 Jul 2018 03:39
FoR Codes: 38 ECONOMICS > 3802 Econometrics > 380205 Time-series analysis @ 50%
38 ECONOMICS > 3801 Applied economics > 380199 Applied economics not elsewhere classified @ 50%
SEO Codes: 85 ENERGY > 8599 Other Energy > 859999 Energy not elsewhere classified @ 50%
91 ECONOMIC FRAMEWORK > 9199 Other Economic Framework > 919999 Economic Framework not elsewhere classified @ 50%
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