Development and implementation of support vector machine regression surrogate models for predicting groundwater pumping-induced saltwater intrusion into coastal aquifers

Lal, Alvin, and Datta, Bithin (2018) Development and implementation of support vector machine regression surrogate models for predicting groundwater pumping-induced saltwater intrusion into coastal aquifers. Water Resources Management, 32 (7). pp. 2405-2419.

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Abstract

Predicting the extent of saltwater intrusion (SWI) into coastal aquifers in response to changing pumping patterns is a prerequisite of any groundwater management framework. This study investigates the feasibility of using support vector machine regression (SVMr), an innovative artificial intelligence-based machine learning algorithm for predicting salinity concentrations at selected monitoring wells in an illustrative aquifer under variable groundwater pumping conditions. For evaluation purpose, the prediction results of SVMr are compared with well-established genetic programming (GP) based surrogate models. SVMr and GP models are trained and validated using identical sets of input (pumping) and output (salinity concentration) datasets. The trained and validated models are then used to predict salinity concentrations at specified monitoring wells in response to new pumping datasets. Prediction capabilities of the two learning machines are evaluated using different proficiency measures to ensure their practicality and generalisation ability. The performance evaluation results suggest that the prediction capability of SVMr is superior to GP models. Also, a sensitivity analysis methodology is proposed for assessing the impact of pumping rates on salt concentrations at monitoring locations. This sensitivity analysis provides a subset of most influential pumping rates, which is used to construct new SVMr surrogate models with improved predictive capabilities. The improved prediction capability and the generalisation ability of the SVMr models together with the ability to improve the accuracy of prediction by refining the input set for training makes the use of proposed SVMr models more attractive. Prediction models with more accurate prediction capability makes it potentially very useful for designing large scale coastal aquifer management strategies.

Item ID: 53651
Item Type: Article (Research - C1)
ISSN: 1573-1650
Keywords: coastal aquifers, support vectormachine regression, genetic programming, saltwater intrusion, generalisation ability, sensitivity analysis
Funders: James Cook University (JCU)
Projects and Grants: JCU Postgraduate Research Scholarship
Date Deposited: 16 May 2018 07:35
FoR Codes: 09 ENGINEERING > 0905 Civil Engineering > 090509 Water Resources Engineering @ 100%
SEO Codes: 96 ENVIRONMENT > 9609 Land and Water Management > 960999 Land and Water Management of Environments not elsewhere classified @ 100%
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