Measuring transitions in sexual risks among men who have sex with men: the novel use of latent class and latent transition analysis in HIV sentinel surveillance

Wilkinson, Anna L., El-Hayek, Carol, Fairley, Christopher K., Roth, Norm, Tee, B.K., McBryde, Emma, Hellard, Margaret, and Stoové, Mark (2017) Measuring transitions in sexual risks among men who have sex with men: the novel use of latent class and latent transition analysis in HIV sentinel surveillance. American Journal of Epidemiology, 185 (8). pp. 627-635.

[img] PDF (Published Version) - Published Version
Restricted to Repository staff only

View at Publisher Website: https://doi.org/10.1093/aje/kww239


Abstract

New combination human acquired deficiency (HIV) prevention strategies that include biomedical and primary prevention approaches add complexity to the task of measuring sexual risk. Latent transition models are beneficial for understanding complex phenomena; therefore, we trialed the application of latent class and latent transition models to HIV surveillance data. Our aims were to identify sexual risk states and model individuals’ transitions between states. A total of 4,685 HIV-negative men who have sex with men (MSM) completed behavioral questionnaires alongside tests for HIV and sexually transmissible infections at one of 2 Melbourne, Victoria, Australia, general practices (2007–2013). We found 4 distinct classes of sexual risk, which we labeled “monogamous” (n = 1,224), “risk minimizer” (n = 1,443), “risk potential” (n = 1,335), and “risk taker” (n = 683). A positive syphilis, gonorrhea, or chlamydia test was significantly associated with class membership. Among a subset of 516 MSM who had at least 3 clinic visits, there was general stability across risk classes; MSM had on average a 0.70 (i.e., 70%) probability of remaining in the same class between visits 1 and 2 and between visits 2 and 3. Monogamous MSM were one exception; the probability of remaining in the monogamous class was 0.51 between visits 1 and 2. Latent transition analyses identified unobserved risk patterns in surveillance data, characterized high-risk MSM, and quantified transitions over time.

Item ID: 53102
Item Type: Article (Research - C1)
ISSN: 1476-6256
Keywords: HIV; HIV surveillance; latent class; latent transition; men who have sex with men; sexual risk behavior
Funders: National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC), Victorian Operational Infrastructure Support Program, Victorian Department of Health
Projects and Grants: NHMRC Principal Research Fellow grant 1112297, NHMRC Career Development Fellow grant 1090445, NHMRC Career Development Fellow grant 1034464, NHMRC Public Health Scholarship grant 1055196
Date Deposited: 11 Apr 2018 04:05
FoR Codes: 11 MEDICAL AND HEALTH SCIENCES > 1108 Medical Microbiology > 110801 Medical Bacteriology @ 100%
SEO Codes: 92 HEALTH > 9204 Public Health (excl. Specific Population Health) > 920404 Disease Distribution and Transmission (incl. Surveillance and Response) @ 100%
More Statistics

Actions (Repository Staff Only)

Item Control Page Item Control Page