Parasite biodiversity faces extinction and redistribution in a changing climate

Carlson, Colin J., Burgio, Kevin R., Dougherty, Eric R., Phillips, Anna J., Bueno, Vernoica M., Clements, Christopher F., Castaldo, Giovanni, Dallas, Tad A., Cizauskas, Carrie A., Cumming, Graeme S., Doña, Jorge, Harris, Nyeema C., Jovani, Roger, Mironov, Sergey, Muellerklein, Oliver C., Proctor, Heather C., and Getz, Wayne M. (2017) Parasite biodiversity faces extinction and redistribution in a changing climate. Science Advances, 3 (9).

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Abstract

Climate change is a well-documented driver of both wildlife extinction and disease emergence, but the negative impacts of climate change on parasite diversity are undocumented. We compiled the most comprehensive spatially explicit data set available for parasites, projected range shifts in a changing climate, and estimated extinction rates for eight major parasite clades. On the basis of 53,133 occurrences capturing the geographic ranges of 457 parasite species, conservative model projections suggest that 5 to 10% of these species are committed to extinction by 2070 from climate-driven habitat loss alone. We find no evidence that parasites with zoonotic potential have a significantly higher potential to gain range in a changing climate, but we do find that ectoparasites (especially ticks) fare disproportionately worse than endoparasites. Accounting for host-driven coextinctions, models predict that up to 30% of parasitic worms are committed to extinction, driven by a combination of direct and indirect pressures. Despite high local extinction rates, parasite richness could still increase by an order of magnitude in some places, because species successfully tracking climate change invade temperate ecosystems and replace native species with unpredictable ecological consequences.

Item ID: 51326
Item Type: Article (Refereed Research - C1)
Additional Information:

This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial license, which permits use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, so long as the resultant use is not for commercial advantage and provided the original work is properly cited.

ISSN: 2375-2548
Funders: University of California Berkeley Department of Environmental Science, Policy, and Management (UC), Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (NSERC)
Projects and Grants: UC A. Starker Leopold Chair, UC CGL2015-69650-P, UC Ramon y Cajal research contract RYC-2009-03967, NSERC Discovery Grant
Date Deposited: 25 Oct 2017 07:40
FoR Codes: 06 BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES > 0608 Zoology > 060808 Invertebrate Biology @ 50%
05 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES > 0501 Ecological Applications > 050101 Ecological Impacts of Climate Change @ 50%
SEO Codes: 96 ENVIRONMENT > 9608 Flora, Fauna and Biodiversity > 960805 Flora, Fauna and Biodiversity at Regional or Larger Scales @ 100%
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