A techno-economic and environmental assessment of long-term energy policies and climate variability impact on the energy system

Emodi, Nnaemeka Vincent, Chaiechi, Taha, and Beg, A.B.M. Rabiul Alam (2019) A techno-economic and environmental assessment of long-term energy policies and climate variability impact on the energy system. Energy Policy, 128. pp. 329-346.

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Abstract

This paper examines the impact of climate variability and change (CV&C), and energy policies on the future energy system in Australia. Scenarios were developed to represent CV&C impacts and policy options, which were analysed with the Long-range Energy Alternative and Planning system for the period 2010–2050. The results indicate that although energy demand is likely to increase threefold in the business-as-usual scenario, CV&C further increases demand to 150 petajoule. A combined policy option involving modal shift and penetration of electric and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles results in a 49–53% decrease in transport fuel demand and emissions. The economic analysis reveals a substantial decline in sales revenue and increase in generation costs due to CV&C impacts. Higher renewable energy integration results in lower wholesale electricity prices across independent electricity markets. Cumulative cost-benefit analysis indicates that economic benefits increase to US$4.9 trillion in an advanced renewable energy scenario. Emissions and energy consumed increased under climatic conditions, but decreased after policy intervention. Ignoring the influence of CV&C may result in underestimation of future energy demand and installed capacity in Australia. Therefore, energy and climate policies should consider long-term economic benefits over short-term system costs.

Item ID: 50261
Item Type: Article (Research - C1)
ISSN: 1873-6777
Keywords: climate variability and change; Australia; LEAP; energy policies; emission reduction; scenario analysis
Date Deposited: 24 Jan 2019 06:16
FoR Codes: 05 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES > 0502 Environmental Science and Management > 050209 Natural Resource Management @ 30%
05 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES > 0502 Environmental Science and Management > 050205 Environmental Management @ 20%
14 ECONOMICS > 1402 Applied Economics > 140205 Environment and Resource Economics @ 50%
SEO Codes: 85 ENERGY > 8598 Environmentally Sustainable Energy Activities > 859802 Management of Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Electricity Generation @ 40%
85 ENERGY > 8507 Energy Conservation and Efficiency > 850702 Energy Conservation and Efficiency in Transport @ 20%
85 ENERGY > 8598 Environmentally Sustainable Energy Activities > 859803 Management of Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Energy Activities (excl. Electricity Generation) @ 40%
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